David Schutz, Robin Webb, Bill Kearney, Angie DiMichele, Shira Moolten, South Florida Sun-Sentinel

A catastrophic situation in unfolding in the Caribbean, particularly for Jamaica and Haiti, with Tropical Storm Melissa virtually stalled and poised to undergo rapid intensification to Category 4 strength or higher over the next two to three days.

Long-range models continue to take Melissa on a track east of Florida, but officials stress the lack of certainty over the forecast and urge the state to remain vigilant.

In the Caribbean, the National Hurricane Center is warning of extreme and prolonged amounts of rainfall that will result in numerous life-threatening flash floods, landslides and storm surge. Jamaica will likely take the brunt of Melissa's assault, but Haiti and the Dominican Republic are also at high risk.

Melissa is barely drifting about 165 miles south-southeast of Jamaica as of Friday morning. The National Hurricane Service advised residents of Jamaica to prepare for the worst as the storm is expected to jump to major hurricane status by Sunday morning and continue to crawl just off the south coast of the island over the course of many days. By Tuesday of next week, it will likely still be within a few dozen miles of the island.

"Due to Melissa's slow motion, the risk of a prolonged multi-day period of potentially damaging winds, heavy rainfall resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides, and storm surge continues to increase for Jamaica," Hurricane Center forecasters said. "Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion, since strong winds and flooding rains could begin in Jamaica later today or on Saturday."

Continues are extremely unusual in the Caribbean, with Melissa trapped between two blocking systems. With nowhere to go for now, the storm is stationary. But as the blocking currents shift, Melissa will begin to slow move and conditions will quickly allow the storm to strengthen.

"The exceptionally warm waters of the Caribbean will provide extra energy for Melissa to strengthen," said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. "This storm is expected to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane once it enters an area with less disruptive wind shear south of Jamaica."

As of Friday morning, the National Hurricane Center's forecast "cone of uncertainty," which shows the area of potential tracks over the next five days, is not much more than a circle, indicating very little movement.

While it lingers in the region, Melissa could dump as much as 30 inches of rain on parts of the islands, AccuWeather said in a statement.

"Melissa is forecast to rapidly intensify to a major hurricane while slowly churning over the warm waters of the Caribbean," DaSilva said. "Because the storm is expected to move so slowly, some parts of Jamaica could experience hurricane conditions for 72 hours or longer. Melissa is evolving into a slow-motion disaster. Millions of people are at risk of catastrophic impacts. We are increasingly concerned about the threat of a humanitarian disaster unfolding, especially if this storm stalls."

Melissa is expected to make a gradual turn to the north, then northeast early next week, but the track at that point becomes quite murky, the hurricane center said. Some models have the storm moving north and east, out into the Atlantic, while others suggest it could meander farther west, toward Central America, before veering north.

The farther west the storm travels, the more likelihood it has of affecting Florida. The uncertainty about the forecast leaves the state open to some risk, said DaSilva.

"A dip in the jet stream over the Southeast U.S. and strong upper-level winds are expected next week, which should prevent movement toward the Gulf Coast states," DaSilva said. "The risk of direct impacts on the U.S. is low at this time, but it cannot be ruled out."

The strength of the storm will determine the path. The stronger and taller it gets, the more likely it will be caught up in high-altitude winds pulling it to the northeast.

Some forecasting models show Melissa reaching Category 5 status this weekend.

The so-called "spaghetti models," which are computers that forecast the long-range track of a storm, show Melissa turning sharply to the north and northeast while it is south of Cuba. Where that turn happens will determine the threat level to Florida.

Melissa is the 13th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Four hurricanes have formed so far. Of the 13 named Atlantic storms, only Tropical Storm Chantal has made a U.S. landfall.