It doesn't take a genius football mind to know that Joe Burrow going down for an extended period due to injury isn't good for the Cincinnati Bengals' outlook. Burrow left Sunday's game with a toe injury that will require surgery and take the star quarterback out of action for potentially three months.
The Bengals beat Jacksonville 31-27 to move to 2-0, so they avoided another slow start, at least in the record column. Fans will still be in the dumps though with their franchise QB on the shelf for a majority of the regular season.
If Burrow is out three months, he could play the final three or four games of the regular season, meaning he would miss 11 or 12 games. That assumes the Bengals are still in the playoff hunt at that point and would think getting him back on the field would even be worth it.
Backup Jake Browning was 21-for-32 for 241 yards in Burrow's absence on Sunday, and the Bengals trailed five different times in that game, but still won. Browning also made seven starts in 2023 with the Bengals going 4-3 in those games, so there is some hope they can stay afloat.
Still, the betting odds don't paint a pretty picture. The Bengals are 3.5-point underdogs at a Minnesota team that has not looked good so far. In the opener, the Vikings needed a two-score fourth-quarter comeback to beat a Chicago squad that just gave up 52 points to Detroit. Then, the Vikings put up just six points at Atlanta on Sunday Night Football with J.J. McCarthy going 11 for 21 with two interceptions.
In other words, there isn't a lot of confidence in the Bengals right now.
That's what happens when you lose an MVP candidate for potentially two-thirds of the regular season. Burrow was the most popular MVP bet on BetMGM earlier this month, receiving more money to win the award than Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes combined. Burrow was +750, the third-shortest odds to win, and now is off the board. Before the season started, Borgata director of race and sports Thomas Gable said that his power ratings had Burrow worth 5.5 points toward the point spread.
On the team futures side, the Bengals suddenly look like an underdog to make the playoffs. Cincinnati's win total was 9.5 before the season (with the over slightly favored). After beating Cleveland in Week 1, the line remained the same, but the over became even more favored. Even after a 2-0 start, the line is now at 7.5 wins. The over is heavily favored at -160 (vs. +125 for the under), but that shows how much the Bengals' stock has dropped.
Last year, the Bengals went 9-8 and missed the playoffs. To say the Bengals are projected to win seven or eight games right now means the sportsbooks are not expecting a playoff berth.
Elsewhere in Cincinnati's futures odds, there is some hope. The Bengals are +2500 to win the AFC, which is much longer than the +1100 from before, but still rates them seventh in the conference. The thinking would be that if Burrow returns and can get the Bengals into the playoffs, they could be dangerous if they get there. It's the getting there part that is likely to prove difficult.
The Bengals also dropped from +2000 to +5000 to win the Super Bowl, which puts them tied for 15th in the odds board.
Cincinnati is all alone in first place in the AFC North, but the odds are saying the division race is nearly over. The Baltimore Ravens, who will face the Bengals twice in a three-week span from Thanksgiving to Dec. 14, are -400 to win the division. The Ravens are 1-1, but the implied odds put Baltimore at an 80 percent chance of winning the division. The Bengals moved from +275 to +650, also behind Pittsburgh (+600).
It could be worse, Bengals fans: You could be a Browns fan. The season is only two weeks old, and Cleveland is a whopping +12500 (125-to-1) to win the AFC North. September is halfway done, and we're already at "Yeah, that's not happening" for Cleveland in the division race.