A busier-than-normal Atlantic hurricane season is likely, with up to 19 predicted named storms, including 10 hurricanes and five major hurricanes, according to a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration outlook issued Thursday.
A typical hurricane season averages 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes, three of them major. The outlook does not predict how many storms will make landfall or what areas they might impact. The outlook for hurricane season, which lasts from June 1 to Nov. 30, predicts a 10% chance of a below-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season and a 60% chance of an above-normal season.
"Everything's in place for an above-average season," National Weather Service director Ken Graham told reporters.
Factors the Weather Service cited include warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, which provide more energy to fuel storm development, along with forecasts for weak wind shear. Strong wind shear would disrupt tropical storms before they develop into hurricanes. Meteorologists also said there was potential for higher activity from the West African monsoon, where many Atlantic hurricanes develop.
Extreme storm events are becoming a greater threat to New York State, according to the state's Department of Environmental Conservation.
In 2011, Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee hit the East Coast back-to-back, bringing damaging winds, extreme precipitation, and significant flooding.
In 2012, Superstorm Sandy brought heavy rains, strong winds and record storm surge, causing $60 billion in "catastrophic damage" to the New Jersey shore, New York City, Long Island and other coastal areas, according to the DEC.
Since 1934, Long Island has been battered by more than 44 tropical storms and hurricanes.
The deadliest weren't always the strongest: the 1938 Long Island Express, which made landfall near Bellport as a Category 3 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of around 120 miles per hour, killed around 60 people, injured hundreds and destroyed thousands of homes and farms.
In August 2024, a series of storms caused $41 million in flood damage in Suffolk County, mostly on the North Shore.
In a statement, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman said that "each and every year we prepare for the worst, and hope for the best. We monitor the weather closely and train frequently to make sure that all of our assets are available should there be a hurricane or any other emergency."
Suffolk County Executive Edward P. Romaine did not immediately comment.
A hotter planet does not appear to be yielding more storms or even stronger ones, Graham said in response to a reporter's question about the impact of climate change. But, because warmer air holds more moisture, meteorologists are seeing heavier rainfall, he said.
"You go to some of these communities [and hear] ... 'I've lived here my whole life, I've never seen rainfall rates like that,' " he said.
The weather service's outlook joined several already released, including one from Colorado State University predicting 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes. The university's model predicted a 51% chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the East Coast of the continental United States, higher than the 43% average chance for the period 1880-2020.
After Trump administration job cuts this spring, nearly half of National Weather Service forecast offices had 20% vacancy rates, a level experts said met the threshold for critical understaffing. Laura Grimm, NOAA chief of staff, said the hurricane center, which coordinates warnings and forecasts, was fully staffed.
Graham said hurricane prediction would not be impacted.