MISSOULA -- This might be the most unpredictable FCS season in years.
So why not take a stab at projecting how things will play out as teams across the country have undergone massive roster overhauls amid landscape-altering changes off the field while the subdivision appears wide open on the field?
Here are five bold predictions, in no particular order, about the Montana Grizzlies for the 2025 season as fall camp concludes this week:
Montana will advance to FCS playoff semifinals
The Griz are No. 7 in the Top 25 poll, which would equate to a home playoff game in the second round followed by a quarterfinal road exit if they got the No. 7 seed. They've made the quarters three times in five seasons but have got to the semis once in that stretch -- when they had home field advantage.
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They do have a favorable schedule, which is a big reason they're among the favorites to win the Big Sky Conference title. They get eight home games, avoid two of the six teams who got a first-place vote in the league polls, and currently have only three ranked opponents, two of which come to Missoula.
Even if they lose once, like they did in the 2023 regular season, that would historically still be good enough to earn a top-two seed. That would then give them home field advantage throughout the on-campus playoff games. They haven't lost a home playoff contest since 2013, having won nine in a row.
Looking across the FCS landscape, there doesn't appear to be a team that is far and away the preseason national title favorite. This year could end up being unusually wide open, which could make playoff home field advantage even more important and the slim difference in advancing to the next round.
Gillman will be top-3 finalist for Payton Award
Junior running back Eli Gillman surprisingly didn't make the 2024 list of 35 finalists for the Walter Payton Award, given to the FCS offensive player of the year. He's now on the preseason watch list and has potential to be one of the top-three vote-getters invited to the national awards banquet in January.
He may rack up lofty stats while being leaned on with the loss of Nick Ostmo and inexperience behind him in Malae Fonoti and Stevie Rocker Jr., who have shown potential. He'll have his path paved by a veteran offensive line with seven seniors and possibly two former FBS players on the rebuilt right side.
The Griz may also find comfort in handing him the ball as they smooth out unproven elements in the passing game with their quarterbacks working with new pass catchers. Plus, if the new-look defense starts out slow, the Griz might need to rely on Gillman and the offense to win some shootouts.
He has reached 20 carries in a game just once in 31 career games but still is on pace to break the Montana all-time records in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns and total touchdowns halfway through his career. If unleashed, Gillman could be even more fun and dangerous as long as he stays healthy.
Griz will end All-Big Sky quarterback drought
The Griz last had a quarterback make one of the all-conference teams in 2019, when Dalton Sneed was an honorable mention. He has been the only Griz QB to receive the honor since Hauck returned to Missoula. That was also the last time UM had the same starting quarterback in consecutive seasons.
Keali'i Ah Yat could put an end to both of those skids if he takes the reins and commands full playing time after splitting reps in 16 games. He has appeared improved in his pocket presence and deep ball during fall camp while seeming to run with the first-team offense more than Jake Jensen or Luke Flowers.
Young speedsters -- Brooks Davis, Lekeldrick Bridges and Jordan Dever -- could rack up yards in a hurry on deep shots, especially if defenses creep up to stop Gillman. Shifty Michael Wortham, possession receiver Blake Bohannon, and pass-catching tight ends Josh Gale and Titus Rohrer offer more weapons.
The Big Sky has few returning QBs with a proven track record, so there aren't loads of preseason favorites to earn a league honor. Northern Arizona's Ty Pennington and Idaho State's Jordan Cooke are the most experienced, while many other teams have transfers or returners asked to take on a bigger role.
UM will have multiple All-Americans on defense
The Griz had four defenders earn various All-America honors in 2023. They got just one honoree last year in linebacker Riley Wilson, who departed for Arizona. Even with no returning starters this year, they could be more like the 2023 defense as they appear to be a more athletic group than last season.
The defense is revamped with returning upperclassmen taking on bigger roles, veteran transfers looking to fit in and younger players trying to take the next step. This unit could surprise even if it does take time to coalesce in Tim Hauck and Roger Cooper's second year as co-defensive coordinators.
Perhaps linebackers Peyton Wing, who has brought a relentless motor from Portland State, and Elijawah Tolbert, who transferred from Eastern Illinois, convert on their preseason All-America nods. Defensive end Hunter Peck, the Frontier Conference defensive MVP last year, might end up being a great find.
Safety Micah Harper, a Freshman All-American at BYU, could return form after injuries. D-end Kellen Detrick and linebackers Solomon Tuliaupupu and Geno Leonard may finally shine after injuries. Then there's upcoming sophomores in cornerback Kyon Loud, linebacker Caleb Otlewski and safety Diezel Wilkinson.
Griz will have more non-offensive TDs than losses
The Griz accomplished that feat two years ago with seven scores -- four on special teams and three on defense -- while finishing with a 13-2 record. They scored just three non-offensive touchdowns last year, all of which came on Junior Bergen punt returns, while they ended up posting a 9-5 record.
They brought in a supposed special teams ringer this year in transfer Michael Wortham, an All-American all-purpose player. He scored once on a kick return in two years at Eastern Washington, but he now gets to be coached by Bobby Hauck, whose Griz have scored 32 special teams touchdowns in 13 seasons.
On defense, the fast and physical Griz could get back to finding the end zone. In 2024, they failed to score a defensive TD for the first time since 2014. They showed an ability to force turnovers, with multiple picks by cornerback Kenzel Lawler, and could've had even more if defenders didn't drop passes in camp.
Perhaps Kent Baer, who coordinated Montana's disruptive defense from 2018-22, can help the Griz cause more chaos as he is back as the senior analyst. Defensive analyst Alex Gubner, the 2023 Big Sky defensive MVP, has been working with nose tackle Jareb Ramos, who could possibly anchor the defense.
Frank Gogola is the Senior Sports Reporter at the Missoulian and 406 MT Sports. Follow him on X @FrankGogola or email him at [email protected].
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