The Connecticut Huskies will look to keep their hopes of back-to-back conference titles alive as they take on the Creighton Bluejays in the semifinals of the Big East Tournament at Madison Square Garden on Friday night.
UConn has been on a defensive tear, and these teams have a history of low-scoring affairs, so I'll be taking the Under in my Connecticut vs. Creighton predictions.
Let's take a look at which side will make the tournament final and all the other betting options in my free college basketball picks for Friday, March 14.
These teams split their regular season meetings, and Creighton has the most impactful player on the court in Ryan Kalkbrenner. But UConn is playing its best basketball of the year, as the Huskies come in having won five straight games. I'm also a bit concerned about how hard the Bluejays had to work to scrape out a double-overtime over the DePaul Blue Demons yesterday. I'm picking Connecticut to win.
My best bet: Under 139.5 (-110 at bet365)
The UConn Huskies have been a strong offensive team throughout the season, but the two-time defending champions have clearly stepped up their game on the defensive end in recent weeks. The Huskies come into tonight's game having won five straight, hitting the Under in their last four games, and allowing an average of just 58.8 ppg in that four-game stretch.
The Creighton Bluejays are no slouch on defense, either. The Bluejays have allowed 69.4 ppg for the season, holding opponents to 40.8% shooting and just 32.2% from beyond the arc. They also don't foul, giving up 11.3 free-throw attempts per game - the second-lowest in the league.
Ryan Kalkbrenner is a big part of that effort. The four-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year forces opposing offenses to play around him, averaging 2.7 blocks per game and scooping up an average of 9.0 rebounds as well to limit second-chance opportunities.
The Bluejays put in a disappointing effort against DePaul yesterday, but the final score (85-81) doesn't reflect what was again a solid defensive effort, as the game was tied at 62 at the end of regulation. That makes seven of the last 10 games when Creighton held its opponents to 70 points or less in the standard 40 minutes of play.
Speaking of which, both games between Creighton and UConn this year saw these teams hit the Under, with neither team scoring more than 70 points in either contest. The higher total came in the more recent game, but even that one topped out at 136 total points.
We already have enough evidence to predict these teams are likely to play a lower-scoring game, and the improved defensive numbers each has put up recently only reinforces that. I'm taking the Under in tonight's matchup.
The Under is my best bet here, but I also like the Huskies to win this one and cover the relatively small spread. UConn has been playing very well down the stretch, both stepping up its defensive effort and rediscovering its offensive balance now that Alex Karaban is out of his shooting slump.
Speaking of Karaban, I'm going to take him to hit the Over on his three-pointers made prop for the second straight game. Yesterday, I had to take Karaban to make more than 2.5 threes, which he easily did, hitting four; today, the total is down to 1.5. Karaban has hit the Over on that number in each of his last four games, and there's no reason to think he won't again tonight.