Far from home, researchers from Idaho could help refine models, improving the outlook on how glaciers impact the climate.

University of Idaho researchers studying in Southeast Alaska at the Sít' Kusá Turner Glacier have developed a mathematical model they say simplifies the way glacial movement is understood, which could help refine climate change predictions.

Tim Bartholomaus, associate professor in U of I's Department of Earth and Spatial Sciences directed the research, and the recently published study was led by Yoram Terleth, a doctoral candidate at the school.

"Our model shows that short-term and long-term variations in glacier speed can be understood through the same fundamental mechanisms," Terleth said. "Previously, these changes were thought to be driven by separate processes, requiring different models for different timescales."

According to U of I, the global climate is affected by glaciers and ice sheets, which cause sea level to rise and influence water cycles, "though there is remaining uncertainty around the exact magnitude of future sea level rise resulting from the total volume of ice that will calve, or break off, into the oceans."

Traditional models of glacial movement have been complex, researchers pointed out. The new model is more simplified and accounts for a broad range of changes in ice speed. The faster the ice speed that increases glacier loss, the more sea levels rise.

"This model provides a fundamental understanding of how glaciers move," Bartholomaus said. "By identifying universal patterns, we can improve larger, more complex models used for predicting long-term glacier evolution and its impact on global sea levels."

The department's study stated that "multiyear cycles of fast glacier flow, known as glacier surges, suggest that a gradual build-up of heat or water at the base of glaciers could drive ice flow instabilities. However, past models did not account for season variations in water flux through glaciers and their influence on glacier flow."

Using the new model, the researchers stated the findings could be used to study glaciers worldwide and can help create more reliable and detailed simulations. Future work will include more data sources such as satellite imagery and measurements taken at the sites.