Guaranteed to retain the No. 1 ranking after the US Open, Aryna Sabalenka must beat Marketa Vondrousova in Tuesday's quarter-final to confirm her spot in another semi-final in New York.

The Belarusian defeated Cristina Bucsa in straight sets to reach a fifth consecutive quarter-final, and she seeks to take down the 2023 quarter-finalist in the battle of Grand Slam champions.

Match preview

Barring unforeseen circumstances, Sabalenka was always expected to reach the last eight in New York, where she had thrived over the previous four years.

With the No. 1 ranking at stake, the 20-time WTA champion risked losing her top spot if she exited before the quarter-finals and either Iga Swiatek or Coco Gauff claimed the year's final Grand Slam.

Any fears -- if there were any -- have now been allayed, as the 27-year-old has advanced to the tournament's last eight without dropping a set, most recently defeating Cristina Bucsa 6-1, 6-4 in an hour and 13 minutes.

Sabalenka's performances have improved as the US Open has progressed, positioning her well in the crucial second week as the defending champion strives to secure back-to-back titles at Flushing Meadows.

Now with 32 career wins at the US Open -- surpassing her 28 victories in Australia, where she is a two-time champion -- the No. 1 seed aims to achieve her 33rd win and reach her fifth consecutive semi-final, where Jessica Pegula or Barbora Krejcikova await.

In Sabalenka's path stands Vondrousova, whose recent victories over in-form players in New York have not gone unnoticed.

The 2023 Wimbledon champion defeated Jasmine Paolini in the third round and then Elena Rybakina, both of whom were in excellent form in the lead-up tournaments.

Paolini was a finalist at the WTA 1000 event in Cincinnati, where she lost to Swiatek, while Rybakina reached the semi-finals in Washington, Montreal and Cincinnati, losing to the eventual champions Leylah Fernandez, Victoria Mboko and Swiatek, respectively.

Vondrousova's last two wins have brought her within one more victory of surpassing her 2023 performance, when Madison Keys defeated her in straight sets.

The world No. 60 picked up five games in that 2023 quarter-final defeat to the American player, but she now aims for good fortune against the best hard-court player in the women's tour.

Tournament so far

Aryna Sabalenka:

First round: vs. Rebeka Masarova 7-5 6-1

Second round: vs. Polina Kudermetova 7-6(4) 6-2

Third round: vs. Leylah Fernandez 6-3 7-6(2)

Fourth round: vs. Cristina Bucsa 6-1 6-4

Marketa Vondrousova:

First round: vs. Oksana Selekhmeteva 6-3 7-6(3)

Second round: vs. McCartney Kessler 7-6(7) 6-2

Third round: vs. Jasmine Paolini 7-6(4) 6-1

Fourth round: vs. Elena Rybakina 6-4 5-7 6-2

Head To Head

Cincinnati Open (2025) - Second Round: Sabalenka 7-5 6-1

Berlin Open (2025) - Semi-final: Vondrousova 6-2 6-4

Stuttgart (2024) - Quarter-final: Vondrousova 3-6 6-3 7-5

Adelaide (2023) - Quarter-final: Sabalenka 6-3 7-5

Australian Open (2022) - Third round: Aryna Sabalenka 4-6 6-3 6-1

Miami (2021) - Fourth round: Aryna Sabalenka 6-1 6-2

's-Hertogenbosch (2018) - First round: Sabalenka 0-6 7-5 6-3

Indian Wells (2018) - Third round: Vondrousova 6-2 6-2

Biel (2017) - Qualifying: Vondrousova 2-6 6-2 6-1

Considering main-draw results, Sabalenka leads Vondrousova 5-3 in their head-to-head, though that advantage is halved if the Czech player's 2017 victory in Biel qualifying is included.

The Belarusian star lost their first encounter at Indian Wells in 2018, but then went on a four-match winning streak to open a 4-1 lead.

However, Vondrousova has claimed two of the last three matches, albeit on clay and grass -- Stuttgart and Berlin -- while the world No. 1's only recent success was in Cincinnati.

We say: Sabalenka to win in three sets

Since the start of 2023, only two players -- Coco Gauff and Keys -- have defeated Sabalenka in the hard court Grand Slams, where the Belarusian holds a 37-2 record.

Considering Sabalenka's 4-1 lead over Vondrousova in hard-court matches, including four consecutive wins, the 27-year-old is favoured to secure a fifth victory in a row and reach the semi-finals in New York.

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