Smoke from the Butternut Fire lingers around East Mountain last year.
With rain badly needed, especially to relieve drought and abnormally dry conditions in northern and central sections of the Berkshires, a cold front slicing through the region may be somewhat beneficial on Saturday.
Ahead of the cooler air mass, warm and humid conditions by early-September standards, with temperatures briefly spiking above 70, may set the stage for moderate showers and few thunderstorms, according to the National Weather Service, especially on Saturday afternoon and evening. There's a slight chance of damaging winds in portions of the county.
Skies should clear by mid-morning on Sunday, with noticeably cooler and less humid air as highs may remain in the upper-60s.
A prolonged dry spell sets in for most of next week, AccuWeather.com predicted, with highs in the 60s, overnight lows dropping to near 40, and fairly low humidity.
The Mount Greylock forecast for Saturday shows the summit obscured in clouds, with a chance of morning showers and afternoon thunderstorms accompanied by potentially gusty winds and highs in the low-70s, dropping to the mid-60s in the afternoon.
DROUGHT UPDATE
Most of North Berkshire -- including North Adams, Clarksburg, Adams and Williamstown -- is now in a moderate drought zone, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor report issued Thursday.
The abnormally dry, pre-drought category includes additional North and Central Berkshire communities -- Pittsfield, Cheshire, Dalton, Hinsdale and Lanesborough.
The rest of the county is clear of any abnormal lack of rainfall, according to the report.
Although rainfall has been sparse countywide this summer, South Berkshire has benefited from several heavy showers that bypassed areas north of the MassPike.
Berkshire County has escaped, so far, the severe drought afflicting northern New England, where weather stations in numerous areas have reported that the past three months have been among the top five driest on record.
The U.S. Geological Survey has listed many rivers and brooks reporting stream flows well below normal levels. Among them is the Housatonic River near Great Barrington, where the stream flow is the lowest since 2001.
The U.S. Drought Monitor appears to be underestimating the extent of the dry spell here, according to David Boutt, a geohydrology professor at UMass Amherst.
Based on his study of groundwater levels from a network of about 25 observation wells from the Connecticut River Valley through Berkshire County to the New York border, those levels were lower than at the worst point of last year's late summer and autumn drought.
"I'm seeing more depression in the groundwater table," Boutt commented on Friday. "It's approaching the low point of the severe 2022 drought. Groundwater conditions should keep falling until late November or early December even if it starts raining again."
But the end of the growing season and the fall foliage by late next month should ease the impact on groundwater levels, he noted, though tinder-dry timber could pose a brushfire risk, as in last year's East Mountain wildfire in Great Barrington last November that consumed 1,700 acres, mostly in woodlands.
"The biggest thing I'm worried about at this point is the brush fires," said Boutt. "The uplands are very dry."
The long-range forecast for Sept. 13-19 from the Climate Prediction Center indicates temperatures and rainfall in Berkshire County will be near normal.
Day by day
Saturday: Showers likely with a possible thunderstorm, mid-70s, dropping to near 50 late at night.
Sunday: Partly cloudy after possible early morning showers, high near 70. Mostly clear overnight, mid-40s.
Monday: Sunny, mid-60s. Clear at night, low-40s.
Tuesday: Sunny, near 70, mostly clear after dark, low in the mid-40s before dawn.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, high around 70. Partly cloudy overnight, upper-40s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, low-70s. Clear at night, low near 45.
Friday: Plenty of sunshine, mid-60s. Clear overnight, around 40.
Saturday (Sept. 14): Some cloudiness, high in the low-70s.
Sources: National Weather Service and AccuWeather.com forecasts for Berkshire County.