The Milwaukee Brewers host the Arizona Diamondbacks in the final matchup of this four-game series at American Family Field. MLB odds list Milwaukee as a -170 favorite, while the total sits at 8.5.

My Diamondbacks vs. Brewers prediction target the road team at a nice price in this National League contest.

It's time to sell high on left-hander José Quintana, who takes the mound for the Milwaukee Brewers. Despite his solid surface-level stats, Quintana's underlying metrics suggest that he could struggle down the stretch.

Entering this matchup, Quintana carries a 5.02 expected ERA (xERA) and a .279 expected batting average (xBA). He also ranks in the bottom half of the league in strikeout rate, walk rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.

This expected regression could come against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Through eight career meetings with the D-backs, Quintana is 1-2 with a 6.13 ERA and 1.41 WHIP.

Meanwhile, Arizona hands the ball to Nabil Crismatt. The Diamondbacks have been transitioning him from a bullpen arm into a starter, and he has thrived in his two appearances this season.

Crismatt is 1-0 across those two outings with a 1.00 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. His analytics are equally strong.

If he qualified, the right-hander would rank near the top of the league in xERA, average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.

That just leaves the hitting, where the gap is minimal as both teams rank in the Top 5 in runs scored per game. This all makes the plus odds on the visitors appealing.

Two critical pieces of this Arizona offense have been Corbin Carroll and Geraldo Perdomo. Carroll has scored 17 runs over the past 20 games, while Perdomo has crossed the plate 23 times in that same span.

Perdomo also boasts a .479 xBA and .595 expected slugging percentage (xSLG) through four plate appearances against Quintana.