000<br />AXNT20 KNHC 181013<br />TWDAT<br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />1215 UTC Sun May 18 2025<br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America<br />Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South<br />America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the<br />Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite<br />imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.<br /><br />Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through <br />1000 UTC.<br /><br />...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... <br /><br />The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N16W, then curves <br />southwestward to 06N22W. The ITCZ continues from that point to <br />02N51. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring <br />across the nearshore waters of western Africa, north of 03N and <br />E of 16W. Scattered moderate convection is prevails within 90 nm<br />on either side of the boundaries and W of 19W.<br /><br />...GULF OF AMERICA...<br /><br />Broad surface ridging extends from the central Atlantic westward<br />to central Florida and then weakly across the eastern Gulf. A <br />1017 mb high is analyzed near 27N83W. The pressure between this <br />ridge and low pressure across central Mexico is supporting <br />moderate to fresh E to SE winds across most of the south and <br />southwest Gulf, and moderate SE to S winds across northwest <br />portions. Latest scatterometer data captured fresh to strong E to<br />NE winds across the waters off the NW Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate<br />seas prevail across the basin. No convection is noted over the <br />basin at this time. Smoke from agricultural fires over <br />southeastern Mexico continues to create hazy conditions at the <br />west-central and southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche.<br /><br />For the forecast, moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas <br />will prevail across the western Gulf through Tue. Pulsing fresh <br />to strong E winds are likely each afternoon and evening through <br />Tue night, north of the Yucatan Peninsula as a trough develops <br />daily and drifts westward. Smoke from agricultural fires in <br />southeastern Mexico will sustain hazy conditions at the west-<br />central and southwestern Gulf most likely through the period. <br /><br />...CARIBBEAN SEA... <br /><br />High pressure of 1024 mb centered near 30N44W extends a broad <br />ridge westward to 60W, and then become a narrow ridge westward to <br />central Florida. A deep-layered upper trough is over the Atlantic <br />along about 64W-65W and N of 20N. A surface trough is analyzed<br />along 63W, where the upper trough is supporting scattered <br />moderate to strong convection along and E of the surface trough <br />extending northeastward across the Leeward Islands and into the <br />adjacent Atlantic. Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail across <br />the basin east of 65W, through the Windward Passage, and across <br />the Gulf of Honduras, where seas are moderate. Gentle to moderate<br />winds are elsewhere with slight to moderate seas.<br /><br />For the forecast, the ridge will remain north of the basin <br />through Mon to generally maintain current conditions. Fresh to <br />strong E to SE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras during <br />late afternoons and nights through the period. Moderate to fresh <br />trades and rough seas will persist over the Atlantic waters near <br />and east of the Lesser Antilles through tonight. Increasing trades<br />along with building seas are expected across the eastern part of <br />the basin Sun night. These conditions will shift westward across <br />the central and southwestern basin through early this week. <br /><br />...ATLANTIC OCEAN...<br /><br />High pressure of 1024 mb centered near 30N44W extends a broad <br />ridge westward to 60W, and then become a narrow ridge westward to <br />central Florida. A deep-layered upper trough is over the Atlantic <br />along about 64W-65W and from 20N to 27N. Scattered moderate <br />isolated strong thunderstorms are occurring along and east of the <br />trough to 59W, supported by the upper trough, from the Leeward <br />Islands north to 27N. West of the surface trough, gentle to <br />moderate anticyclonic winds prevail, with slight seas. East of <br />the trough, the ridge is supporting fresh to strong easterly <br />trade winds from the Cabo Verde Islands to the Lesser Antilles. <br />Moderate seas prevail across this area. An old frontal trough is <br />seen lingering from 31N15W to 22N23W, with fresh NE winds to the <br />north of this feature, and seas 6 to 9 ft. Farther east, fresh to <br />strong northerly winds are along the African west coast north of <br />14N. <br /><br />For the forecast west of 55W, the mid to upper level trough and <br />its surface related trough that extends from 27N64W to 24N65W to <br />20N65W is resulting in unsettled weather conditions, moderate to <br />fresh winds and moderate seas, primarily over the waters S of 28N <br />between 58W and 63W. These conditions should gradually improve <br />through early Mon as the system shift NE. The broad high pressure<br />extending southwestward from the central Atlantic to Florida will<br />support gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds W of 63W. Moderate <br />to fresh northeast to east winds will pulse north of Hispaniola <br />and in the Windward Passage each night into next week. In the long<br />term, fresh to strong southwesterly winds and building seas are <br />expected east of northeastern Florida and northeast of the Bahamas<br />around the middle of the week, in response to a late season cold <br />front that will move off the southeastern United States coast. <br />This front may be accompanied by scattered showers and <br />thunderstorms.<br /><br />$$<br />ERA