Despite bold plans under the National Broadband Plan (NBP) 2020-2025 to achieve 70% broadband penetration by the end of this year, Nigeria is struggling to meet its goals, with penetration lingering at just 48.01% in July 2025,far below the target.
Launched in March 2020, the NBP set out an ambitious roadmap to transform Nigeria's digital economy by providing affordable, high-speed internet access to 70% of the country's 216.7 million people. The plan also aimed for minimum internet speeds of 25 Mbps in urban areas, 10 Mbps in rural zones, and a data cost reduction to N390 per gigabyte. Additionally, it sought 70% 4G subscription coverage by 2023 and the creation of a local smartphone assembly plant to lower device costs to ₦18,000.
Sluggish Growth and Recent Declines Highlight Challenges
In January 2025, broadband penetration stood at 45.61% with nearly 99 million subscriptions. This figure slowly rose to a peak of 48.81% (around 106 million connections) in May but has since declined for two consecutive months, dropping to 48.01% with about 104 million subscribers by July.
This drop represents a loss of roughly 1.7 million subscriptions from May and signals a troubling reversal of progress. The average growth rate from January to July, approximately 0.40% per month is far below the 4.4% monthly increase required to hit the 70% target by year-end.
Key Barriers to Broadband Expansion
Several factors have stymied Nigeria's broadband growth:
Government Initiatives and Outlook
The Ministry of Communications, Innovation, and Digital Economy, under Minister Bosun Tijani, has launched transformative projects to close the gap.
One flagship effort is the $2 billion Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) designed to expand Nigeria's fibre optic backbone from 35,000km to 125,000km, aiming to connect 200,000 institutions and bring half of the 33 million offline Nigerians online. Despite initial timelines for rollout starting in Q2 2025, no physical progress has been reported as of August.
Another project, Project 774 LG Connectivity, seeks to connect all 774 local government areas using satellite technology and existing infrastructure.
Tijani emphasizes that these initiatives, if accelerated and well-executed, will not only boost broadband penetration but could also reduce internet costs by over 60% and add 1.5% to Nigeria's GDP per capita.
The Road Ahead
As Nigeria races against the clock with just months remaining in 2025, achieving the 70% broadband penetration goal looks increasingly challenging. Bridging the digital divide will require overcoming persistent infrastructure bottlenecks, regulatory hurdles, and socio-economic barriers to ensure the country's digital future is inclusive and sustainable.