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America could be scaring itself into a self-inflicted recession, CIO says


America could be scaring itself into a self-inflicted recession, CIO says

"It's an outcome that would not merely be self-fulfilling, but self-inflicted as well," Ramsey wrote.

Americans' nervousness about the economy could inadvertently push the US closer to a full-blown recession, according to a chief investment officer.

Doug Ramsey, CIO of The Leuthold Group, said he believed that the risk of a "self-fulfilling confidence collapse" was elevated in the US. That's largely due to declining consumer sentiment, which could pose a major risk to the recession outlook, he said in a recent note to clients.

Ramsey pointed to a handful of sentiment indicators he's watching:

Consumer expectations make up a big chunk of the economic outlook and could weigh on GDP if consumers pull back from spending. Excluding other factors, the decline in Consumer Expectations alone in recent months could cause real GDP growth to fall from around 3% currently to "essentially zero," Ramsey estimated.

"It's an outcome that would not merely be self-fulfilling, but self-inflicted as well," Ramsey wrote.

GDP contracted 0.3% in the first quarter, according to advanced estimates from the Commerce Department. It would take just one more quarter of negative growth for the economy to slip into a technical recession.

Forecasters, though, generally say the economy remains on solid footing overall. GDP is expected to expand 2.4% over the current quarter, according to estimates from the Atlanta Fed. The unemployment rate also remained at 4.2% in April, near historically low levels.

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