Data-driven preparedness, strategic foresight and anticipatory action lie at the core of IOM's work. Data provides crucial information enabling policymakers to move beyond simply responding to migration dynamics to anticipating future challenges and adjusting policies, designing programmes and allocating resources accordingly.

There are no reliable scenario-based forecasts of how changes in climate and other factors will affect future migration worldwide. To address this gap, the Global Data Institute is undertaking data-driven foresight initiatives, including climate impact modelling.

Climate impact modelling

Climate, demographic and technological changes are reshaping migration patterns. Where data sets are available and relevant time frames are longer, the Global Data Institute is developing a state-of-the-art model to deepen the quantitative analysis of population movements driven by various factors.

The model provides insights for the areas of the world that have experienced higher in- or out-migration rates over the past 20 years, and will explain how environmental, economic, social and other factors have affected these patterns. Using scenario-based projections of drivers of migration, the model highlights which areas of the world are expected to experience increased in- or out-migration in response to climate and other changes in the coming years. It can be used at the regional level to investigate patterns and trends in local contexts.