With barely nine months before the governorship primaries of political parties ahead of the 2027 general elections, there is uneasy calm in the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Oyo State.
The direction the party will take remains uncertain, but there are divergent views, misgivings, plot for revenge, influence, federal might, and internal wrangling.
Internal conflicts and emerging forces
Sunday Sun gathered that unless urgent actions are taken to address the situation, the delicate peace within the party may snowball into an implosion that could jeopardise the APC's chances in the state for the 2027 elections. Within the party, a camp loyal to former Senate Leader, Teslim Folarin, is gearing up to battle another camp aligned with the current Minister of Power, Chief Adebayo Adelabu.
The two groups have been vying for control of the party. Recently, a third faction emerged, adding a fresh twist to the internal conflicts. The third force includes Senator Sharafadeen Alli, representing Oyo South senatorial district in the Senate, and Hon Remi Oseni, who represents Ido/Ibarapa East Federal Constituency in the House of Representatives.
While Alli has yet to publicly announce his intentions, some fervent party members are advocating for him to run for governor in 2027. There are speculations that the Folarin camp may prefer Alli over Adelabu.
Concurrently, Remi Oseni has initiated a movement known as the Remi Oseni Committee of Friends (ROCOF) to pursue his political ambitions.
At the recent inauguration of ROCOF, Oseni described the movement as a dynamic, non-political, non-religious, and non-ethnic forum uniting like-minded individuals in Oyo State and Nigeria. The vision driving ROCOF, according to him, is to create a rebirth for both Oyo State and Nigeria, where justice, equity, accountability, good governance, shared prosperity, and sustainable growth are foundational societal elements.
The August By-election
The Ibadan North Federal Constituency by-election held on August 16, 2025 revealed significant cracks within the party. The ruling party in the state, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), secured a decisive victory, a troubling development for the APC.
The by-election was conducted by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to fill the vacant seat created by the death of Musliudeen Olaide Akinremi in July 2024. Akinremi had been first elected to the House of Representatives in 2019 on the APC platform and was re-elected in 2023 on the same party's ticket.
Prior to the election, many political pundits believed the APC would emerge victorious, given its previous wins in the Ibadan North Federal Constituency elections in 2015, 2019, and 2023. However, indications emerged that the pre-election activities revealed the party's internal schisms and exposed weaknesses in its strategies and outreach amid rising voter apathy.
The political dynamics in the federal constituency shifted dramatically when PDP candidate Folajimi Oyekunle won the poll with 18,404 votes, leaving APC's Adewale Olatunji trailing at 8,312. Stakeholders described the by-election as an opportunity for the electorate to express their political sentiments.
According to INEC, the Ibadan North Local Government had a voter base of 217,980 voters, who collected their Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs) before the election.
But the turnout was alarmingly low, with only around 13 per cent actually casting their votes. Records showed less than 30,000 voters participated in the by-election.
The development raised concerns about disenfranchisement and voter apathy, which, according to both the APC candidate and observer reports, could be attributed to broader societal issues.
Polling units recorded mixed turnout rates, with some experiencing high turnout while others witnessed fewer than 15 voters by noon. The election was generally peaceful, with no major security incidents.
Implications of the By-election
Five political parties participated in the by-election, but the spotlight remained on the two leading parties -- PDP and APC, whose supporters were equally passionate yet starkly divided.
In the aftermath, some key figures made statements that called attention to the deeper significance of the election. The PDP candidate, Oyekunle, after casting his vote, emphasised the importance of public participation in the democratic process, stating, "I am confident in the process. It's all about the people."
In contrast, Olatunji, the APC candidate expressed dismay over the low turnout. He insinuated a neglect of civic responsibility among voters, saying: "This is not about one party; it is about the people. If you're sending us to represent you, it's your duty to participate."
The ADC candidate, Femi Dexter Akin-Alamu, echoed disappointment regarding the turnout, alleging vote-buying driven by widespread poverty, with many prioritising their immediate economic hardships over civic duties.
"I received reports of vote-buying from wards one to four, where people were offered money due to their economic struggles," Akin-Alamu stated.
Analysts noted an erosion of electoral integrity reflecting broader social and economic challenges, which undermines the credibility of electoral process in the country.
In response, the APC claimed that widespread vote-buying and intimidation occurred, framing their defeat not just as an electoral failure but as symptomatic of deep-rooted malpractices.
Investigations revealed dissatisfaction within the current leadership of the APC regarding developments within the party.
The APC state executive, under the chairmanship of Alhaji Olayide Abas, has initiated strategies to address the issues arising from some aspirants eyeing both the governorship and senatorial seats.
One ranking member of the APC, wishing to remain unnamed, raised the alarm, stating, "There is a crisis in APC in Oyo State presently, but we are attempting to patch things up. Different groups exist within the party. If we make the mistake of choosing the wrong person as our governorship candidate for the 2027 elections, let's see what will happen."
The APC spokesman in the state, Olawale Sadare, lamented the conditions that marked the election. He reiterated claims of compromised officials and a coordinated effort to undermine the democratic process.
His words: "We have details of the heavy sums of money made available to some PDP chieftains, who were stationed across all polling booths to buy votes."
Political analysts noted that the fallout from the by-election pointed to larger questions regarding the leadership and electoral strategies of the APC in the state.
Sadare also addressed the threat of implosion within the party: "The APC in Oyo State is one big family. We are united. We have a robust mechanism to resolve any crisis within the party, so there is no cause for alarm."
Despite the diplomacy exhibited by Sadare, the defeat of the APC by the PDP in the by-election has emboldened some members to launch direct attacks on Chief Adebayo Adelabu.
A camp of party members, under the aegis of the Concerned Progressive Leaders, has called on President Bola Tinubu to consider removing Adelabu from his position as Minister of Power, arguing that Adelabu was instrumental in the APC's loss due to decisions he made. The group condemned Adelabu's unilateral imposition of an unpopular candidate, Adewale Olatunji, who struggled not only within the party structure but also failed to make an impression on the electorate.
The criticism, according to sources, revealed a disconnect between the party leadership and grassroots sentiments, where local opinions about candidates often take precedence over centralised decision-making.
Critique of leadership and calls for action
The Chairman of the Concerned Progressive Leaders, Chief Tejumola Adisa, stated: "In a reckless display of naked power, the minister, without any consultation with party leaders at the local government and state levels, arrogantly imposed Mr. Adewale Olatunji.
"He had not been associating with the party compared to more reputable and acceptable active members, which included former local government chairmen and former members of the House of Assembly."
Adisa spoke more on the outcome of the by-election: "At the end of the day, Adelabu's imposed candidate was roundly defeated in all 12 wards, including his polling unit, where he struggled to secure just six votes.
"Insensitive to diverse perspectives, and neglectful of the loyal and dedicated members of the APC, who supported the success of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the party's presidential candidate in 2023, Adelabu gave the three major appointments allocated to Oyo State solely to members of his Accord party in just one local government."
The group claimed that the action reflected a lack of leadership acumen.
The Concerned Progressive Leaders enjoined President Tinubu to consider Adelabu's immediate removal as minister for his alleged inability to make sound decisions and lead effectively, in order to prevent further harm to both the government and the APC.
The APC stalwarts called for the annulment of all questionable appointments made by Adelabu. It also advocated a more equitable distribution of positions among the three senatorial districts of the state.
I never influenced emergence of APC candidate for by-election - Adelabu
In his reaction to the by-election loss by APC, Adelabu called for internal reflection and unity within the party.
He stressed the importance of deep introspection, acknowledging mixed feelings surrounding the defeat but asserting that the APC must seize the opportunity for genuine reconciliation.
Adelabu, who spoke through his media aide, Bolaji Tunji, urged APC members to bridge existing gaps and work towards rebuilding public trust. He insisted that low voter turnout and internal divisions could not be ignored.
On allegations that he influenced the emergence of the APC candidate, Adelabu firmly denied any role in the process. He clarified that while the candidate, Wale Olatunji Murphy, was perceived as close to him, he had no involvement in the primaries.
"Whichever way the primaries turned out, I knew I would be accused. If Murphy had lost, people would say I abandoned loyalty or lacked influence to impose Murphy; since he won, some claimed I imposed him. The truth is, I did not influence the process. I have reiterated this with genuine evidence at many of our internal meetings with Ibadan North party stakeholders with Apex leaders and aspirants. As a leader, I pledged to support whoever emerged, and I did so wholeheartedly," he explained.
Acknowledging the post-election criticisms that arose from this wrong insinuation of imposition, Adelabu said he remains undeterred, describing such challenges as part of the price of leadership.
He reaffirmed his commitment to working with other leaders and the party's national structure to reconcile all interests ahead of future elections.
Calling for unity, Adelabu urged all APC leaders, stakeholders, and members across Oyo State to embrace reconciliation and return to the drawing board.
"This is not the time for blame games but for collective responsibility. No aspiration is too big to be sacrificed for the unity, peace, and progress of our party. Together, we can restore the confidence of the people and return APC to winning ways," he said.
He described the party's defeat in the by-election as painful but instructive.
"I received the outcome of the by-election with mixed feelings -- sad that we lost as a party, but humbled by the people's verdict.
"This defeat should inspire us to reflect deeply, heal internal divisions, and reconcile genuinely ahead of 2027, which presents another opportunity for our party."
Adelabu emphasised that the APC remains a strong and progressive party with a proven record of impactful governance. However, he noted that the loss underscored the urgent need for unity, internal cohesion, and a renewed commitment to the welfare of the people.
The minister observed that voter apathy, even among party members, was a clear sign that grievances and divisions within the APC contributed significantly to the disappointing result.
"We cannot afford to ignore the voices of discontent within our fold or take the support of our constituents for granted. Now, more than ever, we must put aside personal ambitions, bridge existing gaps, and rebuild trust with the electorate," he stressed.
Adelabu also cautioned against interpreting the PDP's victory as a demonstration of popularity, citing the extremely low voter turnout of just 13 percent. He alleged that the ruling party relied heavily on state resources and vote buying to secure its win, a practice he said could not be sustained in the 2027 general elections.
"One local government, which houses the seat of government, cannot be used to generalise the popularity of the ruling party across the state.
"The 2027 elections will be different, as the governor's influence will naturally wane. If we put our house in order, the tide will certainly turn in our favour," Adelabu declared.
Future strategies for APC
Teslim Folarin, who was the APC's governorship candidate in the 2023 elections, has remained silent on developments within the party for nearly two years. But sources close to him indicated that he plans to stay in the party but may work against Adelabu in light of the fallout from the 2023 general elections.
Folarin and Adelabu fiercely competed for the APC governorship ticket in 2022, with Folarin eventually securing it before Adelabu shifted to the Accord platform to contest the gubernatorial election.
Meanwhile, the APC has declared its intention to reclaim Oyo State from the grip of the PDP in 2027. The party has initiated a strategy named 'Operation Recapture Oyo State' to realise the goal.
The determination was reaffirmed during a recent meeting of APC chieftains from the 10 local government areas in the Oke-Ogun region of the state, held in Igboho and presided over by Chief Iyiola Oladokun, the party's leader and former deputy governor of the state.
The party leaders at the meeting voiced their concerns. They lamented the loss of the state's esteemed pacesetter status under PDP governance.
"We have learned our lessons on why we lost our progressive state to the PDP and are now committed to establishing a people-oriented, progressive government in Oyo State by 2027," the party's leadership stated.
The leaders at the meeting called for a power shift favouring the Oke-Ogun zone in the selection of both the governor and the senatorial candidate for Oyo North in the upcoming election cycle.
Notable figures present at the meeting included former deputy governors Chief Moses Adeyemo and Alhaji Rauf Olaniyan, as well as former Minister of Communications, Alhaji Adebayo Shittu.
Another APC leader who preferred to remain anonymous, absolved Adelabu of wrongdoing. He stated that the events surrounding the recent by-election were pre-planned and unfolded as anticipated.
"In politics, the more you look, the less you see. What transpired during the by-election was a high level of horse trading.
"Chief Adebayo Adelabu has ambition to become governor in 2027. He is a friend of Governor Seyi Makinde and seeks the governor's support, which necessitates an exchange of value.
"Thus, Adelabu ensured the APC presented an unpopular candidate for the by-election, allowing the PDP to claim victory.
"It is now incumbent on Governor Makinde to fulfil his end of the agreement. The plan is for the PDP to present a candidate from Iseyin in Oke-Ogun or Eruwa in Ibarapa, while the APC would field a governorship candidate from Ibadan.
"It is well-known that Ibadan holds the highest number of votes among the five major zones in the state. The zones are Ibadan, Oke-Ogun, Ogbomoso, Oyo, and Ibarapa.
"So, people should cease their criticisms of Adelabu. The governorship seat is far more crucial to the APC than a seat in the House of Representatives.
"Of course, the PDP in the state will not regret this political maneuver. It will ultimately be a win-win for all involved."
But the Publicity Secretary of PDP in the state, Michael Ogunsina, dismissed the allegation of PDP having a pact with APC on the by-election and the 2027 governorship poll in the state.
He stated: "As a political party, our primary responsibility is to reform and strengthen our internal structure, unite our supporters, and recruit individuals with impeccable integrity to reposition ourselves for electoral success.