You know the old saying: "nothing is certain, except death and taxes." Well, this week it's "death, taxes and a Bills victory."
The 11-3 Buffalo Bills host the 3-11 New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium this week, and you'd be hard pressed to find an NFL expert who's predicting an upset.
As one veteran NFL reporter puts it: "... it's pretty tough, almost impossible, to imagine that the Patriots can put up a fight against the Bills, let alone beat them."
The only debate going on concerning the game is how much Josh Allen and the Bills will win by.
The Bills are 14-point favorites over the Patriots, according to BetMGM. The money line for the Bills -100 (Bet $1,000 to win $100). The over-under is 47.
Here's what experts are predicting:
Sal Maiorana writes: "Crazy things happen every week in the NFL, but it's pretty tough, almost impossible, to imagine that the Patriots can put up a fight against the Bills, let alone beat them. Their best chance would probably be if the awful Orchard Park weather rears its hideous head again and disrupts the machine-like precision of Buffalo's offense and thus lessening the overwhelming talent advantage the Bills have over New England.
"For all fans who continue to wax poetic about snow games, look at what the Bills just did playing in perfect conditions in Los Angeles and Detroit. When Allen and the offensive skill players can utilize the full breadth of their athleticism, they can devastate a defense. When the weather turns ugly -- and while the long-range forecast isn't calling for snow Sunday, the temperature might be in the teens -- it usually works against the Bills.
"Still, even bad weather won't be enough to help the Patriots and this could become a game where we're watching Mitch Trubisky handing off to Ray Davis midway through the fourth quarter while Allen takes a well-deserved rest under a parka on the sideline."
Sloan Piva writes: "The Bills have gone from 'smoldering-hot' to 'inferno,' becoming just the fifth team to score 30-plus points in eight straight games. Josh Allen looks like the runaway MVP, with multiple big highlight-reel plays, countless statistical accolades, and massive wins over the Chiefs and Lions.
"As a native New Englander, lifelong Patriots fan, and someone who's been to multiple Pats games this season, take it from me: the Patriots are not good, and much of the time they don't even appear to be trying to score touchdowns when they get to the red zone. Jerod Mayo's team doesn't stand a chance against their division rivals, especially in Orchard Park.
New England averages 17 points per game on the season (second-worst), while Buffalo averages 31.8 (second-best). Their home/road splits point to an even greater disparity (Buffalo 35.9 PPG at home, New England 14.5 PPG on the road). Buy a half-point to ensure the 14-point cover, but this will most likely be a Bills win by at least 17.
Jeremy Cluff writes: "The Bills are a massive favorite in this game, and for good reason. They should be able to run all over the Patriots and New England's struggling defense."
Peter Dewey writes: "Buffalo's offense has been humming the last few weeks, scoring 48, 42 and 35 points in its last three games and at least 30 points in seven straight (!!).
"That sets up well for an OVER in this matchup, but I also like Buffalo to cover the spread against a New England team that ranks in the bottom 10 in the NFL in yards per play allowed and points allowed.
"The Patriots' offense has not been good enough to keep up with that -- hence the 5-8-1 ATS record -- scoring the third-fewest points in the NFL this season.
"While Maye raises the ceiling of this offense, he's been far from lights out this season, throwing for multiple scores in just three of his 10 outings (nine starts).
"Allen is on a tear right now, and the Bills are posting an average margin of victory of 17.3 points per game as home favorites this season (six games). I expect them to roll in Week 16.
"Pick: Bills -14 (-112)"
This game is Vinnie Iyer's lock of the Week: "Josh Allen is on an unprecedented heater, taking over games by doing things that no one has seen from a quarterback in the modern era. He won't be easing on the gas pedal with a lost New England defense coming to town. Allen has already fast-tracked toward his first NFL MVP, and now it's time to avoid a trap."
Pick: Bills win 38-10 and cover the spread.
Bill Bender writes: "This is a huge line, but the Bills' offense is clicking. Buffalo is averaging 41.7 points per game over its past three, and Josh Allen is making a run at the NFL MVP award. The Patriots have lost four games by 14 points or more this season, and the Pats have allowed 30-plus points in two of their past three games. Buffalo has won the past two home meetings by an average of nine points."
Matt Johnson writes: "The Buffalo Bills defense has allowed 40-plus points in consecutive games, so Drake Maye will have a few chances to find the end zone. However, the Patriots have the worst offensive line in the NFL and the Bills pass rush will make a meal out of this opportunity. On the other side of the ball, Josh Allen should have no trouble doing whatever he wants on the ground or through the air."
The website says: "... our model gives the Patriots a win probability of 12%, while the Bills have a win probability of 88%."
ESPN Analytics give the Bills an 82.5% shot of winning.
Bill Wolcott is a producer who helps cover the Buffalo Bills, high school and Rochester sports in general. The lifelong New Yorker has been a journalist for 30 years.
(This story was updated to add new information.)