Israel's failed attempt to decapitate Hamas' political leadership on Tuesday has called into question many of the assumptions Arab Gulf states and other regional leaders have held for decades. Since the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, the Gulf states have relied on a U.S. security umbrella, backed by the deployment of advanced U.S. defense equipment and personnel at bases in all six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman). Tuesday's Israeli strike on a meeting of Hamas Political Bureau leaders in Qatar upended the trust that regional leaders have placed in Washington to protect their sovereignty, not only from adversaries such as Iran but also from aggressive Israeli action. Yesterday, the foreign ministers of the Arab League and Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) met ahead of today's Arab-Islamic emergency summit. Reports indicate that the summit will produce a joint resolution to introduce concrete measures against Israel. According to Reuters, the reported draft resolution warns that the strike in Doha threatens "everything that has been achieved on the path of normalizing ties with Israel, including current agreements and future ones."
Considering the deep tensions between the Gulf states and other regional actors, assembling the summit in less than a week, especially given its scale, is a notable achievement that underscores a shared sense of urgency in the region. The key question is whether the reported draft resolution will amount to symbolic condemnation or, as some reports suggest, signal a shift toward more consequential measures against Israel, including diplomatic downgrades, targeted economic actions, and restrictions on airspace and access.
The strike reverberated deeply in Qatar, not only because it was conducted against Qatari territory but because the country had, in June, already been subjected to an Iranian retaliatory missile strike against the large Al Udeid Air Base that the U.S. military uses to project power in the region. That missile attack was an indirect result of Israeli use of force - in that case against Iran's nuclear facilities - which Trump backed by sending U.S. B-2 Stealth bombers to Iran to try to complete the destruction Israel had begun.
Israel's attack has undermined the belief in Qatar, Egypt, and other Arab states that Trump can compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to remain committed to a process of negotiations that would eventually bring the Gaza conflict to an end. In authorizing the Doha strike, Netanyahu messaged his dismissal of mediation efforts by Qatar, Egypt, and the U.S. to pursue a military victory against Hamas, instead of what his Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief of staff and other senior Israeli leaders consider unattainable.
Regional leaders noted that Trump's public statement after the strike condemned Israel's decision to target Hamas in a key U.S. ally, but at the same time signaled U.S. alignment with Netanyahu's objective to "eliminate" Hamas. Trump's post on Truth Social included the statement: "...eliminating Hamas, who have profited off the misery of those living in Gaza, is a worthy goal." The U.S. and the Arab states have, to date, pressed Netanyahu to pursue a negotiated settlement to end the war, obtain the release of the remaining 48 Israeli hostages (living and deceased), and support the establishment of a new Palestinian government in Gaza that would disarm Hamas. Trump's apparent decision to allow the Israeli strike to proceed, after he was informed by U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) that Israeli aircraft were en route, seemingly undermined the Trump team's credibility as a mediator of the Gaza conflict.
Arab leaders considered the Doha strike a betrayal of what they believe to be their show of faith in voting, along with the European states, on a July declaration that demanded Hamas disarm. That declaration essentially aligned the Arab states with Israel's core condition for ending the Gaza conflict - that Hamas's political and military control of Gaza end. As a follow-on to that statement, on Friday, the UN General Assembly adopted a declaration reiterating the demand for Hamas' surrender and disarmament, while also outlining "tangible, timebound, and irreversible steps" toward a two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinians. The document sets the stage for several major powers to formally recognize a State of Palestine when the UN General Assembly meetings convene in New York the week of September 22. The U.S. and Israel voted against the U.N. statement, and Trump, Netanyahu, and their teams have stressed their opposition to any recognition of a Palestinian state, absent an Israeli-Palestinian agreement on parameters for that state.
More broadly, the Israeli strike - coupled with other recent Israeli actions in the region - accelerates Gulf and other regional reassessments of the key geopolitical threats to the region. Israel's attacks on Iran in June (the "Twelve Day War") addressed the specter of a nuclear-armed Iran - a threat perception Israel and other regional states share. However, the Doha strike and Israel's attacks on facilities in post-Assad Syria and in Lebanon have prompted Arab leaders to perceive Israel as an aggressor that obeys no "red lines" and perceives it has "carte blanche" from Trump and his team. During the war against Iran, Israel's strikes on Iran's military leadership raised concerns that Israel was seeking not only to destroy Iran's nuclear infrastructure but also to cause a change of regime, an outcome that Gulf leaders fear would plunge the region into years of chaos. Some experts expect Israel's aggressive posture will, if not restrained by Washington, prompt Gulf leaders to deepen intra-GCC cooperation, further expand still rudimentary security ties to Russia and China, and broaden defense cooperation with Türkiye, which already maintains a significant military deployment in Qatar.
The Israeli strike furthermore places in jeopardy a core goal of President Trump, dating to his first term - achieving Israel's full integration into the region. Trump considers the September 2020 "Abraham Accords," which just marked its fifth year, as a seminal foreign policy achievement. The UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan all recognized Israel formally by joining the Accords, and the Trump team has hoped to bring more regional states into the pact, including post-Assad Syria, the Sultanate of Oman, Lebanon, and Azerbaijan. Trump had also planned, once the war in Gaza ends, to resume efforts to broker a Saudi-Israel normalization, a goal likely further set back by the strike on Doha.
In the aftermath of the Israeli operation in Doha, senior Saudi officials reportedly communicated to their Trump counterparts that U.S. aspirations for peace through regional integration are at risk. In a call with Qatar's Amir Shaykh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) called the Israeli strike a "criminal act," and is expected to attend the emergency Arab-Islamic summit in Doha, to discuss the Israeli attack. UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan visited Doha immediately after the strike to support the Qatari leadership, putting aside the strains between the two Gulf states that led to a UAE and Saudi-led blockade of Qatar during 2017-2021. The UAE had already been threatening to leave the Abraham Accords if Israel proceeded with the annexation of the West Bank. Following the Doha attack, organizers of the Dubai Air Show, scheduled for November, reportedly barred Israeli firms from displaying equipment at the show.
Recognizing the strike's potential to disprove his overarching geopolitical thesis in the region, Trump mobilized his team to contain the fallout. On Friday, the U.S. joined members of the UN. Security Council expressing "deep concern" over the strike and praising the "vital role" Qatar plays in mediating conflicts, including the war in Gaza. The resolution did not mention Israel by name, an exclusion that presumably provided cover for the U.S. vote in favor. Trump held several phone calls with Netanyahu following the strike, one of which was reportedly contentious, to impress upon him that Trump had pledged to Qatar's Amir that an Israeli strike on Doha would not happen again. At the same time, Trump's team signaled its ongoing support for Israel, including sending Secretary of State Marco Rubio to Israel on Sunday to meet with Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders. According to U.S. readouts, Rubio's talks in Israel focused on a way forward for a solution to the Gaza conflict, suggesting Trump's team is seeking to repair the damage the Doha strike caused to its credibility as a mediator.
Trump and his team also sought to dissuade Doha from abandoning its mediation efforts in Gaza. On Friday, Trump and his Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, who has been working with Qatar, Egypt, and other regional states on a Gaza resolution, met with Qatar's Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed Abdurrahman Al Thani in New York. The session followed Al Thani's meeting earlier on Friday, in Washington, with Vice President JD Vance and Rubio. Sources said the discussions focused on Qatar's future as a mediator in the region and U.S.-Qatar defense cooperation - a reference to finalizing the latest update of a 1992 U.S.-Qatar formal defense cooperation agreement (DCA). Some Qatari statements signaled the Israeli strike would cause the country to abandon its mediation of the Gaza conflict. Still, Al-Thani stated, even before his meetings with Trump officials, that Qatar "would not be deterred from its role as mediator." Qatar has also directly signaled that Washington's failure to prevent the Israeli strike would not cause lasting damage to U.S.-Qatar relations. A Qatar government statement on Thursday asserted that the security and defense partnership with the U.S. is "stronger than ever and continues to grow."