A Palestinian boy flies his kite near tents of displaced families in the Nuseirat camp, in the central Gaza Strip (AFP).
Two years after the October 7, 2023 attack, the Hamas movement faces one of the most critical junctures in its history. The devastating war that followed has transformed both Gaza and the movement that ruled it for nearly two decades. Despite severe losses, Hamas has managed to retain part of its organizational and military structure, even as it loses most of its senior leadership and its control over the Gaza Strip.
Since the war began, Tel Aviv's stated goal has been to eliminate Hamas' political and military leadership, particularly those responsible for the October 7 operation. Over the course of the two-year conflict, Israel has succeeded in killing most of those figures, including senior commanders such as Mohammed al-Sinwar, Muhammed Shabaneh, and Hudhayfa al-Kahlout - better known as Abu Obaida - the spokesman for the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades and a member of its military council. Many other political and field leaders were also assassinated, some of whom were not directly involved in planning or executing the October 7 attack.
Despite the heavy losses, Hamas has managed to preserve a degree of its military organization and continued to mount attacks against Israeli forces using guerrilla tactics. Israeli claims that the movement's brigades and battalions were completely dismantled proved overstated, as Hamas units continued to launch ambushes and raids deep inside the devastated enclave.
One of Hamas' few strategic advantages has been its ability to keep several Israeli captives alive. This allowed mediators to secure two ceasefires - one lasting only a few days, and another extending for more than two months - during which both sides carried out prisoner exchanges.
Economically, the movement has shown surprising endurance. Despite Israel's systematic bombardment of Hamas-linked businesses, financial offices, and investment networks, the group continued to pay salaries to government employees and members of its military and political wings. Restrictions on money transfers, coupled with Iran's difficulties in maintaining financial support after repeated strikes on its supply routes, have severely strained Hamas' finances but not halted them entirely.
Internally, Hamas has maintained security control, executing dozens of alleged collaborators with Israel and ambushing rival armed groups, even under Israeli bombardment. On the media front, the group has continued to release footage of its attacks and of Israeli hostages, projecting an image of continued cohesion and operational capability.
The movement has suffered an extraordinary loss of senior figures. Among the dead are Ismail Haniyeh, head of Hamas' Political Bureau; his deputy, Saleh al-Arouri; and Yahya al-Sinwar, the Gaza chief who briefly succeeded Haniyeh before being killed in an Israeli strike. The Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades also lost its top commanders - Mohammed al-Deif, Mohammed al-Sinwar, and Marwan Issa - along with numerous brigade, battalion, and field leaders.
The political fallout has been equally severe. Hamas has seen its regional ties weaken and its ambition to replace the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) as the central Palestinian representative effectively collapse. Arab and European governments that once maintained discreet contacts with the group have largely cut them off since October 7, viewing Hamas as a destabilizing actor and an obstacle to future peace efforts.
Domestically, the movement's popularity has eroded sharply. Even long-time supporters inside Gaza now question the wisdom of the October 7 attack, which brought overwhelming destruction to the Strip. Entire neighborhoods have been wiped out, infrastructure shattered, and hundreds of thousands displaced. Many Gazans blame Hamas for not anticipating the catastrophic consequences.
An Uncertain Future for Hamas' Supporters
With growing prospects of a final ceasefire, Hamas now faces the question of its political and administrative future. The movement has already indicated a willingness to relinquish control of Gaza to a national authority formed by consensus among all Palestinian factions, including Fatah. But this raises deep concerns among tens of thousands of Hamas employees and loyalists, who fear being left to face their fate alone.
The future of the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades also remains unclear. Many of its remaining fighters, still armed with light weapons, are waiting for instructions that will depend on the terms of any political agreement. Some Hamas leaders are expected to leave Gaza under a negotiated settlement aimed at ending the war.
Amid these challenges, Hamas is striving to secure a role in shaping the postwar Palestinian landscape. In recent responses to mediators, the movement has proposed revisions that would allow for a unified Palestinian position on crucial issues such as the future of armed resistance, the governance of Gaza, and broader political arrangements.
Hamas insists that any disarmament must be part of a collective national agreement rather than a unilateral act. It seeks a comprehensive national deal that defines the next phase of Palestinian politics.