Cignetti will need some new faces -- primarily plucked from the portal -- to settle in quickly. All eyes will be on Fernando Mendoza behind center, but the Hoosiers need the best of Pat Coogan, Kellen Wyatt, Hosea Wheeler, Byron Baldwin Jr. and a handful of others as well.
The schedule will be less forgiving, too, with a home opener against Illinois followed by road trips to Iowa, Oregon and Penn State. Of course, that will also mean Indiana can afford a little more leeway on the playoff bubble, with multiple chances to add quality wins in conference play.
Love him or hate him, Cignetti has become one of the can't-miss quotes of college football. But can he replicate the magic of 2024 with expectations higher now? The fall ahead looks fascinating.
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Maybe this isn't an overly bold prediction, given Kurtis Rourke did the same a year ago. But Mendoza, while improved from his freshman to his sophomore seasons, still was not always the most efficient passer at Cal.
He threw 16 interceptions over two seasons, managed just 16 touchdowns last year and struggled for efficiency at times early in the season.
Mendoza improved as the season went on, though, completing 69% of his passes or better in five of Cal's last six games. He will play behind a better offensive line this year. And history tells us new QBs thrive under Cignetti. This one will.
Amare Ferrell got undeservedly lost in the shuffle last fall, at least when it came to leaguewide recognition. The Florida native finished 2024 with 49 tackles, four for loss, with four interceptions and five passes defensed, excellent numbers in just his second college season.
Now, with the secondary being rebuilt around him, Ferrell figures to play an even more prominent role. With Koi Perich and Caleb Downs leading a strong Big Ten safety class into the season, Ferrell has competition for all-conference selection. But he'll rise to that level in 2025.
This is a double-barreled prediction. First, that E.J. Williams Jr. will be healthy and productive enough to tie down one of Indiana's starting boundary spots in the wideout rotation.
And second, that Williams' emergence bumps Cooper inside to the slot, where IU needs his versatility and production. He'll repay his coach's offseason praise with the improved consistency Cignetti demands playing from the inside, where Cooper will realize the potential he flashed as far back as Lawrence North.
If Williams produces outside, it gives IU the flexibility to move Cooper to the slot, where his speed and strength will make him a devilish cover.
More than that feels possible, but fanciful. Preseason betting odds on this happening would probably make Iowa the favorite, both because it's relatively early in the season and given preseason expectations around both teams. It's also not going to be a night game, which is always helpful at Kinnick.
Keep one eye on IU's Oct. 11 trip to Oregon. Not because the Ducks won't be good -- they will be very good -- but because there's a lot to replace in Eugene, and Oregon will be coming down off a big road game at Penn State, followed by a bye.
Still, 1-2 is reasonable for the Iowa/Oregon/Penn State turn.
If you've browsed our schedule predictions, you know I've got IU at 10-2, specifically with wins against Illinois and at Iowa. I also think there's a decent chance at least one of Michigan State or Wisconsin could have value by November.
In general, it's hard to imagine a 10-win Big Ten team not in the playoff. Even more so if the Illinois and Iowa wins hold up. Illinois should, and Iowa's most common current win total over/under is 7.5, which in an ideal world for IU stands that win up as well.
If Indiana reaches the selection show with 10 wins, including two over top-25 teams, and one of those on the road, it's difficult to imagine the Hoosiers left out. Possible, yes, but an outlier on the range of possibilities. IU would be on the bubble, but in all statistical likelihood on the right side of it.
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