As of May 25, 2025, the decision to cancel NASA's Space Launch System (SLS) and Orion spacecraft in favor of SpaceX's Starship has not been finalized. However, significant developments have occurred since the proposal was first mentioned in the X post from May 2, 2025.
The X thread by Rod D. Martin references a Trump administration proposal, supported by a summary budget released on May 2, 2025, which called for NASA to phase out the SLS and Orion programs after two more flights and to cancel the Lunar Gateway project (Aviation Week Network, May 13, 2025). This proposal was framed as a shift toward commercial rockets like SpaceX's Starship, with an $8 billion boost in funding for Moon and Mars missions. The rationale was heavily rooted in cost-efficiency and capability: SLS costs $4 billion per launch with a payload of 27 metric tons to the lunar surface, while Starship is cited at $2 million per launch with a payload capacity of 150 metric tons (up to 1000 metric tons with refueling).
However, earlier context from a March 5, 2025, article on The Conversation noted that while rumors of cancellation were circulating after Trump's electoral victory, "no official announcements have been made." The article highlighted the Artemis program's reliance on SLS and Orion for lunar missions, like Artemis III, and cautioned that such a move would have wide-ranging consequences, especially since SLS performed well during Artemis I in 2022.
The Aviation Week Network article from May 13, 2025, provides the most recent update in the provided data, confirming that the White House had formally moved to end SLS, Orion, and the Gateway, with Starship positioned as the leading contender to replace SLS. However, this is still described as a proposal within a budget summary, not a finalized decision. The article quotes experts like Casey Dreier from the Planetary Society, who notes the strong political support for SLS and Orion due to economic interests in certain states, indicating potential resistance to the cancellation. John Logsdon, a space policy expert, also critiques the "questionable technical foundations" of Artemis, suggesting the proposal aligns with broader skepticism about the program's current structure.
Additionally, comments in the X thread, such as Timothy Bruneau's on May 2, 2025, emphasize Starship's mass-production potential and scalability, suggesting that SpaceX could produce thousands of Starships by the time SLS completes its planned missions. This underscores the momentum behind Starship but doesn't confirm a final decision.
Given the timeline-today is May 25, 2025, and the most recent update is from May 13, 2025-the proposal is likely still under debate. Budget proposals of this magnitude typically require Congressional approval, and the political dynamics mentioned (e.g., economic interests tied to SLS) suggest that a final decision would face significant scrutiny. Without an official announcement from NASA, the White House, or Congress by May 25, 2025, the cancellation of SLS and Orion remains a proposed plan, not a done deal.
If you're looking for the absolute latest status, checking recent NASA statements, White House press releases, or Congressional budget updates post-May 13, 2025, would be the next step, as the situation could have evolved in the past 12 days. Would you like me to simulate a search for more recent developments?