When the Atlanta Hawks acquired Dyson Daniels from the New Orleans Pelicans last July, his arrival was met with a mixture of hopeful intrigue and subdued enthusiasm by Hawks' faithful.
For a fanbase that had seen their squad display worrying signs of regression ever since a Eastern Conference Finals run four years ago and a season coming off a season where they finished 10 games below .500 that ranked in the bottom-half of the league in both offensive and defensive rating, the path ahead seemed bleak.
The Hawks gave up three of their own first-round picks (as well as another protected first-rounder via Charlotte) to bring Dejounte Murray into the fold in the summer of 2022 to (purportedly) shore up their perimeter defense and help bolster the second unit's offense. Two underwhelming seasons later, they were shipping him off to a new city in exchange for two firsts, a young, unproven former top-ten pick in Daniels, a nine-year veteran in Larry Nance Jr., and salary fillers.
At the time of the trade, it was hard to say whether or not the Hawks had actually recouped Murray's on-court value -- a worrying prospect given that they do not own their first-round pick in the upcoming draft, meaning that there is no benefit to bottoming out this season. Additionally, they employ a superstar approaching the end of his contract in Trae Young*, who made it clear at his end-of-season press conference last year that he wants to win and compete for championships, be it in Atlanta or somewhere else.
Now, eight months, 167 steals* and 333 deflections* later, not only has Dyson Daniels proven to be an adequate backcourt partner for Young and a massive upgrade over Dejounte Murray on the defensive end of the floor, but he has also cemented himself as one of the franchise's long-term building blocks alongside Young, Jalen Johnson and Zaccharie Risacher.
Per cleaningtheglass (four factors tables below), last year's starting backcourt of Young and Murray were outscored by 6.3 points per 100 possessions and posted a mind-blowing 123.0 defensive rating* in over 2500 possessions on the court together. This season's starting backcourt of Young and Daniels have essentially played their opponents 'even' in over 3000 possessions, and have been far better on the defensive end of the floor, as evidenced by their 114.9 defensive rating.
That being said, while The Great Barrier Thief's defensive prowess has (deservedly) earned him a lot of attention this season, there hasn't been much conversation about his play on the other end of the court -- a pretty significant question mark at the beginning of the season.
Daniels was relegated to more of an off-ball role on offense in his first two seasons in New Orleans. Playing 20 minutes a night off the bench, he averaged just 4.8 points (shooting 43.5% from the floor, 31.2% from three) and 2.5 assists per game, while posting a minuscule, 12.2% usage rate.
Now with the Hawks, Daniels is playing 34 minutes a night, and is averaging 13.9 points (shooting 47.7% from the floor, 33.7% from three) and 4.0 assists per game, posting a 17.9% usage rate.
So what's changed? Daniels is playing more, is no longer on a team with a plethora of ball-dominant players like he was in New Orleans, and as a result, has seen a spike in usage rate.
Can his improvement simply be chalked up to increased opportunity?
Back in November, I wrote about the parts of Daniels' offensive game that had impressed me the most (inside the arc scoring, half-court playmaking) as well as a few areas that still needed some work (outside shooting, ball-handling). Now that we've had a little more time to evaluate him, and that he's had some more time to settle into his new surroundings, let's check in on how he has performed on the offensive end of the floor this season and confer over how high his ceiling truly is.
While Daniels has always had decent touch around the basket, he has been more diligent about carving out opportunities for himself from this area of the floor this season, with over 70% of his field-goal attempts coming from within 14-feet -- a significant uptick relative to his time in New Orleans.
As the two charts above show, Daniels has essentially tripled his number of drives, rim attempts, and SMR-attempts* (short mid-range attempts) per game without sacrificing much efficiency on these looks, and looking at his his month-to-month splits this season (below), I found it interesting to see that more and more of his field goal attempts have come from inside the arc as the season has gone on.
Though it's evident that both Jalen Johnson's season-ending injury and the De'Andre Hunter trade have shifted more of the offensive burden onto Daniels' shoulders in recent weeks, it's been great to see him embrace this increased offensive role, and he's looked more confident going one on one against opposing defenders in the halfcourt as of late*.
But he is also capable of taking it right at the defender and finishing with either hand:
While Daniels' confidence on the ball has grown as of late, he's also excellent at moving without the basketball*, routinely finding seams in the defense to exploit.
The burgeoning chemistry he's shown with Onyeka Okongwu has been really fun to watch, tapping into Okongwu's passing ability, and these two-man actions have been a real bright spot over the past few weeks.
Additionally, given the pace at which the Hawks play at, it should be no surprise that many of Daniels' offensive possessions come in transition. While he hasn't been excellent, he's been solid enough*, and his transition finishing has accounted for a significant portion of his offense this season.
Of course, it's been great to see Daniels play with more aggression inside the arc, and while we've touched on many of the positives, it's important not to get carried away. Per cleaningtheglass, his season-long 'Rim' and 'SMR' field-goal percentages rank in just the 56th and 51st percentiles respectively, relative to other combo guards this season, and he could stand to add some more muscle to improve his ability to finish through contact.
Additionally, Daniels' floater will be an important swing skill for him to master going forwards, and if he can consistently shoot 48-50%* from this range, it will give him a true, triple-threat of options when he gets going downhill, forcing opposing defenders to look out for a drive all the way to the hoop, a dump-off to a cutter/dunker, or a stop-and-pop floater once he gets to within 14-feet.
He's not there yet, but given Daniels' age, the confidence he's displayed as a scorer despite this being his first season in a significant on-ball offensive role, as well as the degree of difficulty that we've seen on some of his makes, I'm quite bullish on his chances of turning into a high-level threat from inside the arc.
While it's been great to see Daniels tap into his strengths from the inside this season, his outside-shooting ability still leaves a bit to be desired, and is one of the biggest things subverting his value on the offensive end of the floor.
He shot just 31.2% from three (on 3.3 attempts per 36) during his first two seasons in New Orleans, and this season, is shooting what appears to be a similarly underwhelming, 33.7% (on 3.4 attempts per 36) for the Hawks.
Yet, while his raw three-point percentage this season is hardly cause for celebration, if we dig a little deeper, there are actually a few signs that show that his outside shot is actually trending in the right direction.
As you can see from the "wide-open" three-point attempt frequency column in the chart above, Daniels doesn't exactly garner much respect from opposing defenses, as roughly 80% of his three-point attempts have come with the closest defender six-plus feet away in each of the three seasons that he's been in the NBA.
That being said, he's been far more efficient on these looks than he was in the past, converting 38.1% of his "wide open" threes this season. Given that the majority of his threes are of the catch-and-shoot (C&S) variety, it's no surprise that he's seen a similar bump in his C&S three-point percentage as well, shooting 36.6% this season.
Still, while the improvement is encouraging, there is still a long way to go before Daniels' is seen as a respected threat from beyond the arc. His "wide open" three-point percentage this season ranks just 66th out of the 101 players who attempt at least 2.5 "wide open" three-point attempts per game, and his C&S three-point percentage ranks just 129th out of the 212 players who take at least 2.5 C&S three-point attempts per game.
Additionally, as we discussed in the section before this, as the season has gone on, Daniels has taken more and more of his attempts from inside the arc, and in February, he posted the lowest three-point attempt rate over the course of a month in his entire career, taking just 14.2% of his field goal attempts from beyond the arc (1.8 per game). While this also happened to coincide with the most efficient three-point shooting month of his career*, it's no secret that he is going to have to up the volume of attempts eventually.
That being said, while this is obviously an important skill for him to develop, I won't be too hung up on Daniels' three-point attempt rate for the rest of the season. To me, I'd much rather him take whatever shots he feels comfortable taking and work on what he needs to in the off-season.
Once the Hawks get Jalen Johnson back next season however, given that Johnson (like Daniels) also prefers to operate from inside the arc*, Daniels' perimeter shooting will likely be put under the spotlight once again. Long term, the Hawks are going to need him to be able to consistently take and make his open three-pointers to make the most of their current core's offensive skillsets.
Last but not least, Daniels playmaking prowess deserves a bit of love here as well. He had been a decent passer in New Orleans, posting a 2.6 assist-to-turnover ratio while dishing out 4.5 assists per 36, however as we've discussed, his on-ball opportunities were quite limited during his time there.
This season, though he's averaging just four assists per game, he's gotten more comfortable initiating the offense as the season has gone on and averaged five assists and 1.8 turnovers per game during the month of February.
I touched on this back in November, but what continues to impress me the most about Daniels' playmaking ability is the variety of situations that he is able to create plays out of.
His always keeps his eyes peeled for potential cutters -- both in transition and in the half-court.
He's looked good creating out of the pick-and-roll. In the play below, he gets the switch then throws it up top to Okongwu (out of the reach of Cason Wallace and Lu Dort), who scores on the interior.
Against New York, he gets the switch onto Towns, notices Shamet stunting to the paint to help out Brunson, Risacher relocates for a cleaner passing window, and Daniels hits him with the pass for the C&S triple.
The play below is simply a 'hustle assist'. Daniels stays locked in after the kick-out to Okongwu, beats Cade Cunningham to the rebound, then spots the cutting Risacher for an easy score.
Daniels' drive-and-dish/drive-and-kick game has been solid all season, and these plays continue to be a big part of his playmaking arsenal as displayed in the two clips below.
While Daniels has impressed with his passing ability this season, something he has to work on is taking care of the ball -- particularly in transition situations, as his transition turnover frequency (16.8%) ranks 117th out of the 137 players who have a transition playtype frequency of more than 15%, and average over two transition possessions per game*.
While I have my doubts about Daniels' ability to single-handedly run a high-level offense in the near future*, and would be cautious about upping his usage rate too much too soon, it's clear that he has both the willingness and basketball IQ to be an extremely reliable secondary initiator sooner rather than later.
All in all, at 21 years old, Dyson Daniels is one of the most intriguing bundles of potential in the NBA. He's made waves with his defense for obvious reasons, but I think it's important not to put him in a box as a 'defensive specialist', as his offensive skillset is quite intriguing as well.
As we've discussed, while Daniels isn't a top-tier finisher or passer, he has the baseline skillset to hopefully develop into one down the line.
While his outside shot is a concern, he may not be as poor of a shooter as his three-point percentage suggests, and if he can find a way to improve to league-average in this area, the Hawks' will have a dynamite player on their hands.
Daniels' potential is sky-high, and while his growth won't always be linear, it's going to be a whole lot of fun watching him reach the peak of his powers here in Atlanta.