BIG COUNTRY, Texas (KTAB/KRBC) - As of October 9, 2025, the National Weather Service (NWS) has issued a La Niña Advisory, meaning La Niña conditions have been observed and are expected to continue.

In September 2025, sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean dropped below average, a key sign that La Niña was developing. This helped those earlier predictions from a couple of months back come to life, setting the stage for La Niña conditions for the 2025-26 winter season.

According to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), this La Niña event is expected to be weak, meaning it's less likely to bring the typical, more pronounced winter impacts often associated with stronger La Niña years. The CPC notes that "a weak La Niña would be less likely to result in conventional winter impacts, though predictable signals could still influence forecast guidance."

In simpler terms, even though this La Niña may not bring major shifts, it's still enough to influence our temperature and precipitation outlooks across the Big Country and beyond. Current projections show that La Niña conditions will persist from December 2025 to February 2026, with a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions likely sometime between January and March 2026. There's about a 55% chance of that transition occurring, though that could change as new data comes in.

So, what does this all mean for our winter season?

Because this is expected to be a weak La Niña, we're less likely to see the "classic" pattern, typically warmer and drier across the southern U.S. and cooler and wetter up north. Still, the influence may linger, meaning warmer-than-average temperatures and below-average precipitation could continue, much like what we've seen through September and early October.

Looking further ahead, a shift back toward neutral conditions in the spring could also influence our severe weather season in 2026. Neutral phases may bring more active severe weather patterns, though that's more of an observation than a hard rule.

In short, while patterns like La Niña give us valuable insight, the atmosphere doesn't always stick to the script. Even in a weaker setup, we'll likely still see a few strong cold fronts move through the Big Country from time to time, maybe three, four, or even five, giving us that occasional winter chill, even if a white Christmas remains unlikely.

As always, stay tuned to your local meteorologists for the latest forecast updates as we move through the season.