Tennessee (10-2) obliterated their first three non-conference opponents by a combined score of 191-13. That is not a misprint. Their first misstep occurred in Week 4 when @Arkansas backup QB Malachi Singleton ran for an 11-yard touchdown with 1:11 remaining in the game to 19-14. They churned out a pair of one-score wins over Florida and CFP Playoff snub Alabama, which has unquestionably been UT's biggest win thus far. Tennessee's once dominant offense is sustaining drives effectively with a 48.2% success rate, but they aren't hitting big plays that often, ranking 115th in yards per successful play and 108th in marginal explosiveness. The vaunted Vols defense ranks 4th overall in SP+ while boasting arguably the best run D in the nation, averaging a 26.2% stuff rate (4th) while leading the nation in both yards per rush (3.5) and EPA/rush.
Ohio State's (10-2) powerful offense ranks Top 10 on each side of the ball in success rate, EPA/play and Red Zone touchdown rate. The main area of weakness on offense is the Ohio State O-line's ability to handle extra rushers, ranking 76th with a 9.3% blitz down sack rate and 55th in overall sacks per pressure (17.3%). Defensively OSU is elite, ranking 1st in FBS according to SP+. The Buckeyes are facing the seventh-fewest number of deep passes in the country with just 9.9% of passes defended coming 20+ yards downfield. Of course, their ferocious defensive line ranks 5th nationally with a 43.4% pressure rate and 2nd with a crisp 10% sack rate. The Buckeyes are allowing a somewhat elevated 60.3% completion rate (62nd) but still rank 3rd overall in EPA/dropback so the short completions have not hurt them.
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· Date: Saturday, December 21, 2024
· Time: 8:00 PM EST
· Site: Ohio Stadium
· City: Columbus, OH
· TV/Streaming: ABC/ESPN
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The spread opened at Ohio State -7/-238 and has since added the hook at -7.5 and shot up to a market-high of -280 on the OSU moneyline. Tennessee's ML has improved from +195 at open to +230 at ESPNBet. The initial game total of 46.5 is steadily ticking up and showing 47.5 in some spots.
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
"Five of Ohio State's last six games have gone Under the 47.5-point game total, with the lone exception being a statement game against Indiana. Tennessee scored 28 points or less against six of their seven SEC opponents, excluding Mississippi State's pathetic defense. I could easily see an OSU/Michigan type script, with Tennessee's excellent run defense slowing the game down and shortening possessions. I am backing the Under 47.5 points in a somewhat contrarian play."
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