1st November 2025 - (Hong Kong) The Hong Kong Observatory expects a low-pressure area east of the Philippines to consolidate in the coming days. It is increasingly likely to cross the archipelago around mid‑week and then move into the central to southern South China Sea, tracking towards Vietnam. Mainland China's National Meteorological Centre projects the system could strengthen into a typhoon and may affect the South China Sea and parts of the South China coast over the next 10 days.
Artificial intelligence guidance broadly supports a westward progression. The FengWu model indicates the disturbance will reach waters east of the Philippines on Tuesday, 4th November. It is then expected to move due west and enter the South China Sea on Wednesday, 5 November, with steady intensification afterwards. Current projections keep the track at a comfortable distance from Hong Kong.
Local conditions remain seasonable. On Thursday, 31st October, temperatures ranged from 23 to 27 degrees Celsius. At 12.30 pm, the Observatory's Tsim Sha Tsui headquarters reported 24.9 degrees with 65% relative humidity and a UV index of 2, which is low. Brief sunny intervals and dry air were expected in the afternoon, with one or two light showers at night under a gentle northeasterly flow. The weather coincided with the wrap‑up of the Harbour Tour Parade and a planned drone display.
From a synoptic perspective, the northeast monsoon affecting the Guangdong coast will gradually yield to an easterly airstream on Saturday, 2 November. Winds are forecast to freshen with more cloud for a day or two. A subtropical ridge aloft should build over South China by mid‑week, bringing slightly improved weather, though mornings will feel a touch cooler.
Forecast for the next nine days points to warm and breezy conditions at first. Saturday, 2nd November, is expected to reach 23-27°C with humidity between 55% and 85%, and winds from the east to northeast at Force 4-5, strengthening to Force 6 offshore later. Brief sunny spells are likely with isolated light showers, while daytime remains on the dry side. On Monday, 3rd November, temperatures ease to 23-26°C with 60%-85% humidity and similar easterly to northeasterly winds at Force 4-5, occasionally Force 6 offshore, bringing a mainly cloudy day with sunny intervals and a few showers. Tuesday, 4 November, should be 22-25°C with 60%-85% humidity and east to northeast winds at Force 4-5, up to Force 6 offshore at first, with cloudy skies and a few light showers.
A modest improvement is expected mid‑week. Wednesday, 5th November, should range from 21-26°C with 60%-80% humidity and a northeasterly Force 4, accompanied by sunny intervals. Thursday, 6th November, is forecast at 22-26°C with 65%-85% humidity and east to northeast winds at Force 4-5, with offshore areas again nudging Force 6 later and brief periods of sunshine.
Looking ahead to Start of Winter (Lidong) on Friday, 7th November, conditions remain unseasonably warm at 24-27°C with mainly cloudy skies and sunny periods. An easterly Force 4-5 is expected with occasional Force 6 offshore. Saturday, 8th Nov, brings 24-28°C with 60-85% humidity and an easterly to northeasterly Force 4 with sunny intervals. Sunday and Monday, 9-10 Nov, look similar at 24-27°C with brief sunshine. Winds on the 9th are expected to strengthen to easterly to northeasterly Force 4 and occasionally Force 5 later, before easing back to easterly Force 4-5 on the 10th.
Multiple AI and numerical systems point to development and entry into the South China Sea around mid‑week. The ECMWF and AIFS scenarios closely mirror FengWu's westward track and expected strengthening. Pangu and Fuxi show slight differences. Pangu indicates a landfall near Da Nang in the early hours of Saturday, 8th November, with comparable strength guidance. Fuxi suggests a weaker system but a broadly similar path.