Melissa has officially become a hurricane as it continues to meander in the Caribbean Sea. Satellite imagery shows that Melissa's center has become better defined, in addition to an eye occasionally visible on radar from Jamaica -- both classic signs of intensification. The National Hurricane Center now estimates maximum sustained winds near 75 mph, making Melissa a Category 1 hurricane.
The storm will begin drifting west soon before making a hard north turn toward Jamaica next week. Rapid intensification will take place during this time, with Melissa becoming a high-end Category 4 hurricane by Monday morning. It is worth noting that Category 5 strength is not off the table.
Melissa will bring significant and life-threatening impacts to Jamaica, including hurricane-force winds, heavy rain, and storm surge. Some parts of the island can expect over a foot of rain, with isolated pockets exceeding 30". Catastrophic flooding and numerous landslides in Jamaica's elevated areas are expected. Long-duration power and communication outages appear likely.
The storm's size is also bringing impacts to parts of Haiti, where isolated rain amounts of 30"+ are expected. There too, landslides and catastrophic flooding are a possibility.
As Melissa moves northeast next week, Eastern Cuba, the Southwest Bahamas, as well as the Turks and Caicos must monitor the storm. There is an increasing risk of a significant storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the middle of next week.
Melissa will not impact the U.S. East Coast.