George Avalos, Bay Area News Group
The Bay Area managed modest job gains in November -- but more than half of them were in the East Bay, as the tech-heavy South Bay and San Francisco metro region lagged by a wide margin, according to a report from the state's labor agency.
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"The region appears to have found some economic footing in the last few months, though overall job gains remain muted compared to growth rates we were witnessing prior to the pandemic," said Jeff Bellisario, executive director of the Bay Area Economic Institute.
The Bay Area added 3,000 jobs in November -- but the East Bay accounted for 1,900 of them, the report from the state Employment Development Department showed.
The South Bay's job totals were unchanged, while the San Francisco-San Mateo region managed to add just 600 jobs last month, the EDD reported.
"The most recent numbers indicate more of the same for Silicon Valley, said Russell Hancock, president of Joint Venture Silicon Valley, a San Jose-based think tank. "We're not shrinking, but we're not booming. Most people assume it's because we're waiting for artificial intelligence to become our next rocket ship, and they're not wrong."
California, which has one of the highest jobless rates in the nation, added 11,100 jobs in November, and the statewide unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.4%. All of the numbers were adjusted for seasonal volatility.
Despite the employment gains in the state, this news organization's assessment of the EDD figures hints at a deterioration of the California job market.
From August through November, California averaged a gain of 7,900 jobs a month -- but during the prior eight months, from December 2023 through July 2024, the statewide job gains averaged 22,100 a month.
"Job gains statewide have slowed, down not only from the pace of 2022 and 2023, also down from the pace of the first half of this year," said Michael Bernick, an employment attorney with law firm Duane Morris and a former EDD director.
In contrast to California's slump, the Bay Area job market appears to be strengthening.
"The Bay Area has started to outperform the state in job creation in recent months," said Scott Anderson, BMO Capital Markets chief U.S. economist.
The Bay Area averaged gains of 2,500 a month from August through November. During the eight months before, however, the Bay Area produced an average of 1,400 jobs a month.
"Even here, job creation is less than robust" in the Bay Area, Anderson said.
This trend is exemplified by the annual pace of job creation in the Bay Area and its three main uban centers.
Here are the changes in job totals over the most recent one-year period ending in November, and the percent change in total nonfarm payroll jobs, according to an analysis of the EDD report:
-- Bay Area, a gain of 21,300 jobs over the 12 months, or an increase of 0.5%
-- East Bay, an increase of 10,900 jobs, up 0.9%
-- South Bay, a gain of 6,400 jobs, up 0.6%
-- San Francisco-San Mateo region, a loss of 1,800 jobs, or a decrease of 0.2%
"The normal tech-driven job creation in the South Bay and further up the Peninsula continues to be sporadic," Anderson said.
Tech companies slashed 900 jobs in the Bay Area in November, according to a Beacon Economics assessment of the EDD report -- with 800 of them in the South Bay. The numbers were adjusted for seasonal variations.
Retail was a bright spot in the Bay Area, as stores hired people for the holiday shopping season. Retailers added 1,200 jobs in November, the Beacon assessment showed. These numbers also were adjusted for seasonal volatility.
The Bay Area upswing could face headwinds, perhaps due to outside influences rather than problems in this region, in the view of Steve Levy, director of the Palo Alto-based Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy.
"Regional and state job growth, while positive, has slowed in recent months," Levy said. "What was a bright future is now uncertain as deportations, tariff increases and large deficits will be a drag on growth."
The Bay Area job market also must climb another steep hill.
Nearly five years since the business shutdowns ushered in by the coronavirus outbreak, the Bay has yet to regain the jobs it lost due to the economic dislocations arising from the lockdowns.
California has 438,900 more jobs than it did before the coronavirus, up 2.5% from that level.
But the Bay Area in November was 49,600 jobs below where it was in February 2020, or a shortfall of 1.2%.
This despite the fact that the Alameda County-Contra Costa County region is 3,700 jobs above its pre-COVID level, up 0.3%
Nearly all of the region's deficit was in the San Francisco metro region. Tech layoffs and corporate departures have walloped the San Francisco-San Mateo area. This urban center is 45,800 jobs below the pre-COVID levels, a deficit of 3.8%.
The South Bay is still 5,500 jobs, or 0.5%, below its pre-coronavirus heights.
"The Bay Area still hasn't fully awakened from the general economic malaise that we experienced during much of 2023 and the early part of 2024," Bellisario said.
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