AI predicts Earth's peak warming

Artificial intelligence provides new evidence that rapid decarbonization will not prevent warming beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius. The hottest years of this century are likely to shatter recent records.

December 10, 2024

By Josie Garthwaite

Researchers have found that the global goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels is now almost certainly out of reach.

The results, published Dec. 10 in Geophysical Research Letters, suggest the hottest years ahead will very likely shatter existing heat records. There is a 50% chance, the authors reported, that global warming will breach 2 degrees Celsius even if humanity meets current goals of rapidly reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net-zero by the 2050s.

A number of previous studies, including the authoritative assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, have concluded that decarbonization at this pace would likely keep global warming below 2 degrees.

"We've been seeing accelerating impacts around the world in recent years, from heatwaves and heavy rainfall and other extremes. This study suggests that, even in the best case scenario, we are very likely to experience conditions that are more severe than what we've been dealing with recently," said Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability climate scientist Noah Diffenbaugh, who co-authored the study with Colorado State University climate scientist Elizabeth Barnes

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