The Summit League Championship is tonight in Sioux Falls and the Omaha Mavericks will punch their ticket into the NCAA Tournament whether they win or lose since the St. Thomas Tommies are ineligible for the tournament.
These teams split the season series with each team winning at home. Find out why my St. Thomas vs. Omaha predictions see a high scoring game in my college basketball picks for this 9 p.m. tip on Sunday, March 9.
Unfortunately, an NCAA rule will keep St. Thomas out of the Big Dance even if they win this game. However, that may give them a little extra motivation to stick it to the rules committee.
Both Merrimack and Bellarmine have won conference titles while ineligible for the NCAA Tournament in recent years and I think St. Thomas will join them this year with a win in the Summit League Championship.
My best bet
Over 150.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Omaha Mavericks took the first matchup between these two programs back on January 23, 89-78 at home. The St. Thomas Tommies took the rematch at home on February 15, 95-84. Besides the home team winning by 11 points both times, the one constant was that they were both high-scoring affairs.
St. Thomas ranks 15th in the country in scoring and 63rd in KenPom's offensive efficiency. Meanwhile, they rank 266th in points allowed and 254th in defensive efficiency. Omaha does not quite have the same offensive firepower as the Tommies, but they have similar defensive ranks at 273rd in scoring and 267th in efficiency.
The Tommies have one of the best shooting percentages in the country ranking seventh in total field goal percentage, ninth in 2-point field goal percentage, eighth in 3-point field goal percentage, and 20th in free throw percentage. No matter where they are on the floor, they are a threat to put points on the board.
Meanwhile, Omaha is a solid 3-point shooting team themselves, shooting 36.6% from deep, which ranks 55th in the country. Both teams have a great floor percentage with St. Thomas ranking 37th and Omaha ranking 57th. That means they are excellent are converting their possessions into points.
On the defensive end, the Tommies rank 262nd in the country allowing 33.5% of their opponent's points from three. The Mavericks rank 306th allowing 35.0% of their opponent's points from three. This has all the makings of a 3-point shooting contest and both teams shoot an excellent percentage from that range.
The first matchup between these two saw 167 points and the second saw 179 points. It is quite surprising that we are getting a total at only 150.5 in this third matchup. The Tommies have scored 80 or more in each of their two tournament games, and I expect it to happen again here.
To go with our best bet, I am going to take the Tommies to win and cover the spread here. They just have more firepower on offense and Omaha has the same issues on defense as them.
While Omaha dominated their last tournament game, they struggled in their first game and St. Thomas has dominated both games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
St. Thomas has covered the spread in 18 of its last 32 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for St. Thomas vs. Omaha.