Hurricane Hunters have found that Tropical Storm Melissa is strengthening as of Friday afternoon, now packing maximum sustained winds of 60 mph.

With wind shear expected to weaken tonight and Saturday, conditions are ripe for Melissa to rapidly intensify over the weekend, potentially reaching Category 4 or even Category 5 strength by Sunday night.

It's becoming increasingly likely that Jamaica will endure a prolonged period of extremely heavy rain and strong, possibly damaging wind gusts for three days, especially on Tuesday.

The hope is that the hurricane's core stays just offshore. However, if it tracks close to or over any part of the island, the resulting damage could rival that caused by Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, widely regarded as Jamaica's worst hurricane on record.

A weak ridge of high pressure will build north of Melissa, steering it slowly westward through the weekend. By early next week, a strong dip in the jet stream will pick the hurricane up and accelerate it northeastward, crossing over Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas late Tuesday into Wednesday, and potentially nearing Bermuda by Thursday or Friday. Given the strength and reach of the jet stream, there is no threat to the Carolinas with this storm.

There has been some speculation that remnants of this system may affect New England, but those model outliers are even fewer today.

Hopefully, this is the last hurricane of the 2025 season. If no hurricane makes landfall in the U.S., it would be the first season without a direct U.S. hit since 2015, a break we all deserve.