Stabiae: See The Other Roman Town Buried Like Pompeii By Vesuvius
No volcanic eruption in history has been able to match the level of cultural intrigue of the 79 CE eruption of Vesuvius. Decimating the Roman towns of Pompeii and Herculaneum, this event, which is one of the many ancient natural disasters that changed the world, has captivated people's imaginations for hundreds of years.
Although Pompeii was famously destroyed, settlements have continued to thrive in this area. Some even date to Roman times, like Naples, which has been continuously inhabited since the 1st century BCE. Over three million people are estimated to live in Naples and its surrounding area today.
The area also receives a high influx of tourists who want to see the ancient streets of Pompeii, taste the famous dishes of this area, and visit the world-class museums Naples is famous for.
With so many people in this area at any given time, many are wondering what the risk level is for another eruption like the one from 79 CE. Could Vesuvius erupt again sometime in the near future? The answer is pretty frightening.
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Mount Vesuvius' Eruption History Since 79 CE
Vesuvius has erupted around three dozen times since 79 CE
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In order to understand the future, we must turn to the past. When looking at Vesuvius' eruption history, the inevitability of another eruption seems more and more likely. The volcano has actually erupted around 36 times since the famous Roman eruption in 79 CE!
Although the Roman eruption was the most severe, plenty of the other eruptions were bad, too. The eruption of 472 was so intense that its ash was seen falling in Constantinople, 760 miles away. In 512, eruptions were so bad that the local people were exempted from taxes.
In 1631, Vesuvius had its first major eruption in five centuries. This event is thought to have killed around 4,000 people and turned a further 20,000 into refugees.
If you think Vesuvius' eruptions are merely a thing of the distant past, think again. In the 20th century, the volcano had two major eruptions. The first, in 1906, actually ejected lava (Vesuvius usually ejects molten rock, hot ash, and pumice) and killed more than 100 people.
At the time, the Olympics were supposed to be held in Naples in two years (1908) but had to be moved to Rome due to the catastrophe.
In 1944, the volcano had a major eruption that wiped out four towns (San Sebastiano al Vesuvio, Massa di Somma, Ottaviano, and part of San Giorgio a Cremano). Thankfully, the death toll from this eruption was relatively low (26 people died), but around 12,000 people were sadly displaced due to the catastrophe.
A minor eruption occurred fairly recently in 1998, leading to 150 people near the town of Sarno dying.
Known dates of Vesuvius' eruptions since 79 CE:
203, 472, 512, 787, 968, 991, 999, 1007, 1036, 1169, 1500, 1631, 1660, 1682, 1694, 1698, 1707, 1737, 1760, 1767, 1779, 1794, 1822, 1834, 1839, 1850, 1855, 1861, 1868, 1872, 1906, 1926, 1929, 1944, 1998
Major eruptions:
472, 512, 1631, 1906, 1944
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Is Vesuvius At Risk Of Another Eruption?
Whenever it happens, Vesuvius' next eruption is probably going to be worse than the last major event in 1944
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Unfortunately, it's unclear when the next eruption of Vesuvius is going to be. Since 1944, the volcano has been relatively dormant in comparison to its explosive history. However, that doesn't mean that Vesuvius is done erupting. It's actually likely that Vesuvius' next eruption is going to be on a more violent scale.
Because Vesuvius has been mostly dormant since 1944, more magma is able to accumulate beneath the volcano. This magma sits, leading minerals such as olivine to crystallize, which in turn leads to concentrated dissolved gasses.
It's the buildup of these gasses, such as sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide, that has made Vesuvius' past eruptions so violent...and it's what can make future eruptions bad, too. Plus, the magma will likely be more viscous in the future, which will make things even worse.
Some scientific studies, such as one in Science Advances, suggest that Vesuvius isn't due for another eruption for hundreds of years. At the same time, though, nature is a finicky force; there are often forces at play that we don't yet understand. Vesuvius' next eruption might take us by surprise.
Are we at risk of another eruption of Vesuvius?
Yes, though some scientists don't think it will occur for another few hundred years
Will the next eruption be worse?
Yes, due to the buildup of concentrated dissolved gasses and viscous magma
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Who & What Is At Risk If Vesuvius Erupts Again?
3+ million people live in the vicinity of the volcano, plus Naples is home to many important cultural centers
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If Vesuvius were to erupt again in our lifetimes, who and what would face the brunt of the destruction? Before anything else, the 3+ million people who live in this area take precedence.
Depending on their proximity to the volcano, they'd be at a high risk if Vesuvius blows. Hearing the grizzly reports from Pompeii makes the human cost of such an eruption well-known to us today. This is something that shouldn't happen again to anyone, which is why Italy has an evacuation plan in place for that fateful day.
The cost of another eruption would also include cultural and historical landmarks, too. Although the site of Pompeii has already faced one eruption, it's unclear how well the site would survive a second.
The preservation and conservation of Pompeii is already a challenge for archaeologists, so the destruction from another catastrophe might irreparably change the site. Thankfully, at least a third of Pompeii actually still hasn't been excavated. These parts of the city would likely survive a second eruption.
However, the actual site of Pompeii isn't just the only important cultural point in this area. The National Archaeology Museum of Naples, which contains authentic Pompeii frescoes, would also be at risk, too, among other important local museums. This museum holds ancient statues, frescoes, carbonized papyri, mosaics, and more.
Exterior of the National Archaeological Museum of Naples
Other local landmarks, like the Ovo Castle, the Piazza del Plebiscito, the Sansevero Chapel Museum, Castel Sant'Elmo, and the Duomo di Napoli, would all be in trouble.
Currently, Italy is trying to mitigate possible destruction from the volcano by making a national park around it. Called Vesuvius National Park, it encompasses the volcano and much of the surrounding land. Italy has even offered cash incentives for people to move away from the closest inhabited areas by Vesuvius.
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Why Did Naples Survive The 79 CE Eruption, But Pompeii Didn't?
A combination of geography and luck saved this ancient city from decimation during the 79 CE eruption of Vesuvius
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Many might wonder why the city of Naples (or Neapolis, as it was known in Roman times) survived the massive eruption of 79 CE that left other cities in the area, such as Pompeii, decimated. What made Naples, often called the heart of Italy and known for its unusual and off-beat adventures, so resilient to this catastrophe? The answer has to do with geography...and plain old good luck.
Firstly, the geography of the area played a key role in which cities were destroyed by Vesuvius' eruption. Both Pompeii and Naples are around 5 miles away from Vesuvius but in opposite directions. Naples is northwest of the mountain, while Pompeii is southeast. When Vesuvius erupted in 79 CE, the pyroclastic flow traveled southeast, leading it directly to Pompeii.
Secondly, wind played a key role in the destruction. When the volcano initially erupted, a large column of hot gas and ash went up into the atmosphere. This event is called a Plinian column after the famous Roman (Pliny) who described it in the wake of Pompeii's destruction.
When material like this goes up into the atmosphere, it has to come down again. Because of how the wind was that day, the molten debris of the Plinian column in 79 CE blew down onto Pompeii. This led to ash and rocks falling for hours before the pyroclastic flow came down over the city.
These two main factors protected Naples from the brunt of the 79 CE eruption, but it's unlikely that these factors would save the city from a future eruption. If a major catastrophe happens here, Naples would definitely be at risk, and this stunning Italian city could risk becoming yet another one of the world's tourist destinations destroyed by natural disasters.