Via Reuters: Trump to discuss ending childhood vaccination programs with RFK Jr.

When asked if he would sign off if Kennedy decided to end childhood vaccinations programs, Trump told Time magazine, "we're going to have a big discussion. The autism rate is at a level that nobody ever believed possible. If you look at things that are happening, there's something causing it."

When asked if the discussion could result in his administration getting rid of some vaccinations, Trump said: "It could if I think it's dangerous, if I think they are not beneficial, but I don't think it's going to be very controversial in the end."

Asked in the Nov. 25 interview if he thinks childhood autism is linked to vaccines, Trump said: "No, I'm going to be listening to Bobby," referring to Kennedy. Trump said he had a lot of respect for Kennedy and his views on vaccinations.

Bobby, I would note, is a non-expert, indeed kook, on this topic. He is a conspiracy theorist whose utter irresponsibility on this topic has already had lethal consequences. He also has a record of being utterly irresponsible with his "evidence."

Now, do I think that Trump will do away, as a general matter, vaccinations? No. But just entertaining Kennedy's rhetoric about vaccines and autism is dangerous. He is mainstreaming junk science that will lead to people getting sick and, in some cases, dying.

Many of the claims that vaccines cause autism can be traced to a retracted 1998 study published in medical journal The Lancet. The paper, written by British doctor Andrew Wakefield, has been widely discredited.

Research, including a 2014 meta-analysis, opens new tab of studies involving more than 1.2 million children, found no association between vaccines and autism.

Autism advocacy group Autism Speaks says it "remains aligned with the scientific consensus, which confirms that vaccines do not cause autism."

I would note that I have heard (and I noted in a recent post) that GOP politicians are starting to parrot Kennedy's nonsense. This is how bad ideas filter into the broader public. I would note, too that Kennedy's general popularity has increased as many people are rallying around his "Make America Healthy Again" sloganeering.

Further, note, that Trump himself helped usher in the current politics of anti-vaccines given the linkage of frustration over COVID-19 policies and vaccines (and yes, I am aware that Trump tries to have it both ways on those specific shots). Indeed, even prior to the ascendancy of RFK, Jr. we were seeing a partisan divide on childhood vaccinations. Gallup reports: Far Fewer in U.S. Regard Childhood Vaccinations as Important.

We are dangerously close to the removal of requirements being politically viable, making the talk above reported by Reuters very concerning.

Again, Republicans largely account for this change:

I maintain that the problem is that people are either too young to know, or have otherwise forgotten, how commonplace these diseases (e.g., measles, mumps, whooping cough, and chickenpox) were.

Note this 2018 piece from UNICEF about global measles: Measles jab saves over 20 million young lives in 15 years, but hundreds of children still die of the disease every day. People like Kennedy threaten the reversal of such progress and the retarding of further steps toward eradicating these diseases.

Just within the US, see this CDC page detailing the history of measles.

A vaccine became available in 1963. In the decade before, nearly all children got measles by the time they were 15 years old. It is estimated 3 to 4 million people in the United States were infected each year. Among reported measles cases each year, an estimated:

Preventing millions of infections and saving hundreds of lives is a good thing, and therefore vaccines are a fantastic human innovation. During most of my life, such an observation would have been an nonpartisan and widely accepted view with only fringe types thinking otherwise. Now the fringe types are likely to be in charge of HHS.

I will throw in the following on chickenpox (varicella). I had chickenpox as a child, as I was born well prior to the existence of the vaccine. My children were all born after the vaccine. None had chickenpox (indeed, I don't recall any of their friends or classmates gettting it, either). I am pleased that none of them had to suffer through it.

Also, as the New England Journal of Medicine notes, the vaccine has saved lives.

For the interval from 1990 through 1994, the average number of varicella-related deaths was 145 per year (varicella was listed as the underlying cause in 105 deaths and as a contributing cause in 40); it then declined to 66 per year during 1999 through 2001. For deaths for which varicella was listed as the underlying cause, age-adjusted mortality rates dropped by 66 percent, from an average of 0.41 death per 1 million population during 1990 through 1994 to 0.14 during 1999 through 2001 (P<0.001). This decline was observed in all age groups under 50 years, with the greatest reduction (92 percent) among children 1 to 4 years of age.

But instead of listening to scientists and assessing the evidence, Trump is "going to be listening to Bobby."