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Auto industry potentially faces massive production halt due to tariffs, firm says


Auto industry potentially faces massive production halt due to tariffs, firm says

The U.S. auto industry is facing the possibility of major interruptions in production as a result of the ongoing and escalating tariffs between the U.S. and some of its closest trading partners.

That's according to a new report from S&P Global Mobility, a consulting and analytics firm.

S&P Global put the probability of the auto industry experiencing an extended disruption period at 50%. That includes a host of unsavory possibilities, including production interruptions for vehicle models, rising prices, and delays in new product development, with impact for several years to come.

Since Feb. 1, the Trump Administration has issued, rescinded, then reissued tariffs against Canada, Mexico, China and European products. Tariffs are now set for full implementation on April 1, when Trump has said he will impose the first of many reciprocal tariffs.

Tariffs are taxes on imports paid by companies to sell products in the U.S. Economists say companies are likely to pass the costs onto consumers.

Automotive industry analysts say the tariffs will impact American automakers, who rely on steel, as well as parts sourced from plants in Canada, Mexico and elsewhere.

"Although some contend that tariffs on the auto industry may boost U.S. manufacturing, only GM, Ford and Stellantis have excess capacity to increase U.S. production, and automakers are not likely to be able to make such a change quickly or cost-effectively. A production shift would also require suppliers to relocate," S&P Global said in a report.

Of Alabama's automakers, according to S&P, Toyota has localized engine and transmission production. Honda, however, imports some transmissions, as does Mazda. Mercedes-Benz relies on European-sourced transmissions and engines. It should be noted that S&P's analysis is speaking of the company's entire U.S. operations, and not specifically about their Alabama factories.

The firm sees only a 30% probability for a quick resolution, which could take up to four weeks. Still, it expects some production lost due to supply issues and border gridlock, though any sales and production can be regained.

An extended disruption period lasting 16 to 20 weeks is estimated at a 50% probability.

"During this time, several high exposure vehicles will slow or cease production," S&P Global stated.

And under a "tariff winter" scenario, which is a 20% probability, tariffs on Mexico and Canada at 25% would be integrated into prices, with costs increasing further as production is moved to the U.S.

That would "worsen a general labor shortage and leave automakers and suppliers with underutilized plants in Mexico or Canada," the report states. "Although some re-sourcing would occur, higher manufacturing costs could reduce North American light-vehicle sales by 10% for several years, with declines projected at 10% in the U.S., 8% in Mexico and 15% in Canada."

A Mercedes-Benz spokesperson would not comment on the specific logistical issues caused by tariffs for its Alabama factory, but said that "barriers which restrict free trade should not be newly created but removed instead."

"Free trade and fair competition ensure prosperity, growth and innovation," the spokesperson said. "If a general trend towards protectionism gains a foothold, this has negative economic consequences for all stakeholders involved. Mercedes-Benz therefore supports a trading order based on (World Trade Organization) rules that promotes a level playing field. This includes the principle that all participants find the same conditions."

Hyundai also released a general statement, saying the company constantly assesses how "new policy developments affect our business and are in the process of understanding the specifics of tariffs and their impact on our supply chain."

"For nearly four decades, Hyundai has been a driver of American growth and innovation, contributing jobs, economic activity, and investments that have helped Americans prosper. We are proud to directly or indirectly employ more than 190,950 Americans today. We have increased localized production in the U.S. and invested over $15.7 billion in the Hyundai Motor Group Metaplant America (HMGMA) site in Bryan County, Georgia, the largest economic development project in Georgia's history."

On Wednesday, Alabama was named as one of the states being targeted in the European Union's current round of retaliatory tariffs, the latest move in a quickly escalating trade war with the United States.

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