Many fear that J.D. Vance has dug his political grave by saying that he is ready for the top job. A golden rule in politics is that even if you're dying to get the top job, you should act uninterested
This column said last week that vice-presidents of yore made no news; they do nowadays. We cited J.D. Vance and Jagdeep Dhankhar. Vance has since set the Potomac on fire, claiming in an interview that he is ready for the top job. Indeed, he added Don Trump "is in good shape...," but "if, God forbid, there's a terrible tragedy...."
Many fear, Vance has dug his political grave. One, Trump is alive and kicking like a mule. Two, a golden rule in politics is that even if you're dying to get the top job, you should act like a virakt.
Two men have paid the price for violating it -- one in the US, one in India, both after 'terrible tragedies'.
When Ronald Reagan was shot, his vice George Bush Sr was in Texas. Alexander Haig, who was secretary of state, walked into the White House press room and announced, "I, Al Haig, am in control here...." He was right in making the claim, but his brashness put people off. Reagan recovered; Haig lost his job.
When Indira Gandhi was shot, Pranab Mukherjee is said to have made an open claim for the top post. His admirers say he only wanted to be a stop-gap PM, a la Gulzarilal Nanda, till Rajiv took over. Soon he was out of the Congress to serve out a brief vanvaas.
How should one conduct oneself when one covets a job and opportunity knocks? Do like what Bush did, after Haig 'took control'. He landed in Washington, where his aides told him to take a chopper to the White House to show the world that everything, including the nuclear button, was under control. Bush negatived it, saying, "Only the president lands on the South Lawn."
Or do a Narasimha Rao. When Rajiv was murdered and many asked him to take over, Rao got the party offer the crown to Sonia. Perhaps he knew she would say no. The gesture stood him in good stead in the scramble for power afterwards.
Morale of the stories? When Lady Opportunity knocks, don't fling open the door and seat her in your living-room. Take her quietly into your closet; she will know when to come out.
Vance is safe for now. We don't know if Trump is displeased. Even if he is, he can't sack a veep. All the same, Vance's succession is not guaranteed. For, many say that Trump may seek a third term.
Doesn't the law prohibit a third term? Yes, but legal eagles say, there are loopholes.
Ever since George Washington refused a third term, US presidents have conventionally never sought it. But the exigencies of the Great Depression and the World War made Americans overlook the convention and give F.D. Roosevelt a fourth term. After his death early in his fourth term, they made the 22nd amendment in 1951 that banned anyone from being 'elected' to a third term.
How can Trump bypass the law? Take a leaf from Vladimir Putin's power book, and improvise on it.
Russia had a law that prohibited more than two consecutive terms to a president. After serving two terms, Putin got his man Friday Dmitry Medvedev elected prez, and he served under him as PM. Both did one term like that, and swapped places in the next election.
The US law doesn't allow a third-time 'election', even non-consecutive. But it doesn't explicitly prohibit 'succession'. So, Trumpists say, he could make one of his yes-men run for president, and he would run for VP. Once elected, both will serve a few days in their elected positions, and then the elected POTUS will resign citing ill health, family problems or insanity. Under the US law, if a prez dies or quits, the vice takes over for the rest of his term, as Gerald Ford did after Richard Nixon quit. Trump would then rule for the rest of the term.