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Here Comes the Trump Doctrine


Here Comes the Trump Doctrine

Disinformation being one strand of psychological warfare, we can expect the challenge of separating truth from lie to become increasingly difficult as the US warship and world's largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R Ford, closes in on the Caribbean.

With the ship still a few days out, the psychological bombardment by the US against Venezuela's president, Nicolas Maduro, will intensify in the hope of convincing him to pack up and go without a single missile having to be launched.

For the US, this would be the best possible outcome although no one can ever be sure how a power vacuum, once created, will be filled. Given the number of Venezuelans with ambitions to succeed Maduro, things could quickly get out hand, dragging US forces into Venezuela at a price to be paid by all of us.

One can only hope that those among us who do not cherish our region as a zone of peace will not have to come to its appreciation through the experience of living in a zone of war.

One person who cannot claim not to know that the Caribbean is a zone of peace is Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar, who holds the distinction of having signed the Proclamation of Latin America and the Caribbean as a Zone of Peace in Havana, Cuba, on January 29, 2014. She was then in her first term as PM, leading the T&T delegation at the Second Summit of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC).

PM Persad-Bissessar, SC, is fully aware that the international doctrine of zones of peace is an aspiration that guides relationships between nations and has nothing to do with the mayhem created by drug-runners and other criminals. Arguing the point is therefore as pointless as chasing a red herring down a dead-end rabbit hole.

Similarly, her full-throated embrace of the US high-powered foray into the Caribbean as a war against drug cartels. While the flexing of US naval muscle will scare off drug traffickers for as long it lasts, Donald Trump's coveting of Venezuelan oil is a matter of record, as he himself declared in 2023 during his second campaign for the presidency: "When I left, Venezuela was ready to collapse. We would have taken it over. We would have got all that oil. It would have been right next door. But now we're buying oil from Venezuela so we're making a dictator very rich. Can you believe this?"

As an attorney who out-excelled her Attorney General in law school exams, the Prime Minister knows that the US is on thin legal ice in having summarily executed over 40 alleged "drug traffickers" without producing a single shred of evidence. Her ringing endorsement that they all be "killed, violently", may yet pop up before the International Criminal Court, ironically championed by another PM of this country, Arthur NR Robinson.

As always, politics trumps all. Kamla Persad-Bissessar has hitched her wagon to the world's superpower and is gearing up for the political ride of her life with the US president at the controls.

She is not alone in her high expectations. Many are already seduced by the prospect of T&T being rewarded by the US with open access to Venezuela's oil and gas and a life free from drug crimes under the protection of a superpower big brother. A small price, a leader might argue, for the surrender of sovereignty and a willingness to look the other way.

But what if Donald Trump's designs are grander than the destruction of drug cartels, the overthrow of Maduro or even access to the world's largest reserves of oil? What if it's a declaration of hemispheric domination, aimed not only at Maduro but to all of us, with Venezuela as the doorway into South America on one side, and across to Cuba on the other?

As he has revealed in upending the rules-based global trade system, Donald Trump is willing to stretch the power of the US presidency to achieve his ends. Emboldened and empowered, it should be no surprise that his attention would turn his attention to rearranging the global geopolitical order to his purposes.

He hasn't had to look too far for a blueprint suited to his taste. All that the 1823 Monroe Doctrine requires is re-tailoring and updating. Adopted as US foreign policy in the heyday of European colonialism, the Monroe Doctrine asserts that any intervention by an external power in the Americas - which includes the Caribbean - is to be treated as a hostile act against the US. Today, with almost all the countries in the Americas having evolved into independent states, the US' flexing of its military muscle is not necessarily for war but for control and domination.

There are only two leaders in the world that Donald Trump fully admires and respects - Vladimir Putin of Russia and Xi Jinping of China. Last week, it was reported that the subject of Taiwan did not even come up in Trump's "successful" discussions with Xi. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to reel under Russia's attacks as Trump blows hot and cold over Putin's war.

Famously known for the art of the deal, Donald Trump is eyeing his biggest deal of all - the carving of the world into three spheres of influence, dominated, respectively, by the US, China and Russia, each operating with minimal interference from the others. For the Caribbean and Latin America, this salvo against Maduro announces the changing order, defined by power with impunity.

The restraint being exercised by Caribbean leaders in response to Persad-Bissessar's gratuitous criticisms suggests that they sense the inherent danger of this moment.

With the shadow of superpower domination hanging heavy over island and mainland alike, the temptation to break ranks and cosy up to power could quickly propel our region, including T&T, into the unknown without a compass.

The imperative of this moment is not to panic but to hold tight, stay together, be vigilant, prepare, and demand information, answers and accountability from those who act in our name. Above all, let no one divide us.

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