A couple of weeks ago, a German bestseller called If Russia Wins was translated into English -- and sparked a frisson in some Anglo-Saxon military circles. The book outlines a scenario in which Moscow launches a hybrid war, say by grabbing an Estonian town or island, setting off a Nato crisis.

Fantastical? Yes, a few years ago. But not now; least of all given that Russian drones recently invaded Polish space. Nor that European governments are finally -- belatedly -- pledging to raise military spending; and Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission president, has just announced plans to create a "drone wall" on Europe's eastern flank, with Ukraine's help.

Foreign policy wonks should pay attention. But so should investors and voters. For the "drone wall" is not just important in a geopolitical sense; it also highlights an increasingly crucial story about tech and innovation for the west. Indeed, if President Donald Trump really wants to bolster US power, his team should urgently read If Russia Wins -- and watch that drone wall.

That is because the way Ukraine is defending itself has undergone an unexpected (and still often unrecognised) shift. Back in 2022, when Russia started its full-scale invasion, Kyiv had to use its existing Soviet-style kit plus Javelin shoulder-fired anti-tank missiles. Then came western donations of weaponry like Abrams tanks and Himars (high mobility artillery rocket systems).

Next, Ukraine's army of software engineers started using hobby drones, made by Chinese companies such as DJI, first for surveillance, then attacks and defence. Now they are innovating to dramatically extend drone flight range, increase attack capabilities, "swarm" and avoid electronic jamming by using fibre optic cables, balloons and (most crucially) AI.

The Russians are doing the same. And that has transformed the nature of war: a world where cheap drones can destroy ultra-expensive ships and planes changes the power dynamics and economics of combat. "Western systems which were impactful initially are now of very mixed effectiveness," David Petraeus, a former US army general, told a conference in Kyiv last week.

Equally startling, while China has been responsible for 80 per cent of global drone production, Ukraine is now racing to become "China free", Oleksandr Kamyshin, a key political adviser, told me in Kyiv. Last year it produced more than 2mn drones. It could go above 10mn next year, if it has the funds. That means over half of Ukraine's drones are now domestically sourced -- and China is no longer the only global drone king.

This is critical for Ukraine's defence, and might generate badly needed future export revenues too. Indeed, Ukraine is already considering exporting underwater drones, which it has used to push Russian ships out of the Black Sea so successfully that "we don't have a lot left to hit", one official tells me.

But unfortunately, "Russians have been diligent pupils" in copying this innovation, admits Andriy Biletsky, a Ukrainian commander, and "are very good at scaling up". This creates an innovation race -- and puts Ukraine and Russia far ahead of Europe and America.

In response, Nato officials now want to collaborate with Ukraine via partnerships, licensing and private capital investments. They are particularly keen to access the treasure trove of data collected by its drones to train future AI models. "Their equipment is already battle tested," notes Radek Sikorski, Poland's deputy prime minister.

And that shifts the diplomatic power balance. Ukraine is no longer just begging for western help; it also has something Europe and America need.

Collaborating will not be easy. Some western investors and governments are wary of investing in a war zone. Trust between Ukraine and America has collapsed. The Ukrainians are short of investment funds.

There is also a culture clash around innovation models. Kamyshin says Russia uses a top-down, centralised product development system -- but Ukraine has an entrepreneurial ecosystem more akin to Silicon Valley, with fierce grassroots competition between manufacturers who jointly develop products with their "customers", ie the army.

The former system is better for scale. However, the latter is more resilient and has speedier innovation. And since the European and American procurement systems are closer to the Russian model, importing the Ukrainian approach will be hard -- as any business school student would know. But American and European private capital investors and entrepreneurs are trying do precisely that. So are some governments.

So let us pray that these European partnerships accelerate and that a dose of self-interest around AI keeps Trump engaged too. And if that Polish drone incursion -- and If Russia Wins -- finally gets European leaders to wake up, that would be a good outcome. For better or worse, Ukraine and the west both need each other now, not just to defend against Russia but a future China too.