Over the years, ministers have often thought that the federal government could advance religiosity. For example, on April 21, 1907, the New York Times reported that President Theodore Roosevelt had been visited by three leading ministers "armed with an arsenal of statistics, all tending to show how the churches were losing their hold on the people, and [asking] that something must be done to revive interest. ... The President displayed deep interest and promised to aid the cause in every way possible." But there is little sign that Teddy made the wheel turn any sooner; a revival followed the post-war baby boom, not any particular government policy.

Today, many argue that the federal government, specifically the courts' interpretation of the church-state divide, impedes "religious liberty." They denounce, as Barr did in his Notre Dame speech, pressing businesses to serve gay customers, forcing doctors to accommodate abortion, and preventing spontaneous prayer meetings on school playing fields. Liberating religious people from such strictures may strengthen believers' commitments (albeit perhaps alienating non- or alternative believers at the same time), but it is hard to see how more liberty would bring back the religious defectors. New York University sociologist Michael Hout and I have argued, with good evidence, that a major reason why so many Americans began rejecting a religious identity (becoming "Nones") from the 1990s on is that they were put off by the political campaigns the churches engaged in, particularly their attacks on lifestyle liberalization. More political action to press young Americans into church, this time with the feds as allies, may be yet more off-putting.In all these domains, cultural fashions could still turn around. Some social scientists insist that features of our modern economy and society -- say, global markets, science, individualism -- make the changes in ways of life we've seen irreversible, but I am skeptical. Cultural trends are only loosely tied to structural shifts. Example: For all the recent expansion of science and technology, a slightly higher percentage of Americans believe in life after death than did 50 years ago -- about 80 percent versus 76 percent -- and increasing numbers of Americans believe in ghosts. Being neo-traditional is also one way that the young today can be coolly contrary. Nonetheless, history strongly suggests that were, say, women in droves to embrace their inner housewifery, hospital nurseries to spill over with babies, men to again come home with venison rather than sushi, premarital chastity to become hip, churches to need standing-room only balconies, and drag queens and their fans to disappear from the public square, it would not be because of the federal government -- even Trump's.