Saturday Night Five: Our forecast for the Heisman race, CFP chase, Coach of the Year honors and more as the final month arrives.
An upside-down regular season has five Saturdays remaining, and they should be intoxicating.
Instant reaction to Week 9 developments ... and a look at what comes next.
Welcome to November
Two months down, one stretch run to go and please pass the Dramamine. If the final month is anything like the first month and the middle month, the sport is on the brink of coming completely unhinged.
Who figured preseason No. 1 Texas, No. 2 Penn State and No. 4 Clemson would be irrelevant by the end of October.
That Georgia Tech would be alone atop the ACC and Vanderbilt just 1.5 games out in the SEC.
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That Florida State would pound Alabama in the season opener but start 0-4 in ACC play.
That Northwestern would lose to Tulane but beat Penn State, and Mississippi would have a better shot at the playoff than Georgia.
That a former Cal quarterback would be the Heisman Trophy frontrunner, just ahead of a former New Mexico State quarterback.
Thanks to NIL and the transfer portal, every major conference has taken on the Big 12's personality, which favors parity and mayhem and leaves room at the top for anyone interested in making the climb.
The Hotline is here for it -- for every remarkable, unpredictable, indescribable minute.
But let's forget the on-field events of Week 9 and focus instead on the final month.
Our predictions for the awards and honors that matter ...
CFP forecast
The second season of the 12-team College Football Playoff is hurtling toward a chaotic selection process, but clarity exists if you know where to look.
Based on records to date and upcoming schedules, Ohio State, Indiana and Mississippi constitute the lead pack; they are as close to locks as possible with a month remaining.
That said, the SEC has more strong candidates to make the cut on Dec. 7 than the Big Ten.
And keep the Notre Dame factor in mind. The Irish are well-positioned for a bid with five consecutive wins (after an 0-2 start) and no ranked opponents left to play. If they qualify, there would be six at-large berths available -- not seven -- for the non-champions of the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC.
We see the situation unfolding in this manner:
ACC: Miami (champion), Georgia Tech (at large)Big 12: Texas Tech (champion)Big Ten: Ohio State (champion), Indiana (at-large) and Oregon (at-large)SEC: Alabama (champion), Mississippi (at large), Texas A&M (at large) and Georgia (at large)Independent: Notre Dame (at large)Group of Five: Tulane (American champion) Heisman Trophy front-runners
The Hotline has a Heisman vote and will wait for the conference championship games to play out before submitting our three-player ballot.
But if asked to name our current preferences, here's the order:
1. Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia: The former New Mexico State quarterback is neither an elite NFL prospect or one of the nation's leaders in key passing categories. But statistics don't begin to reflect his value to the Commodores. In fact, we'd argue Pavia has done more to transform his school's football program than any player in any conference in years. Vanderbilt is a juggernaut -- Vanderbilt! -- and the psychology starts with Pavia.
2. Georgia Tech QB Haynes King: The Yellow Jackets are undefeated, and King is the biggest reason for their surreal start. The former Texas A&M transfer is a sixth-year senior who has seen everything the sport can throw at him twice over. He's tough, unflappable and perfect for Georgia Tech's run-heavy offense, with one game of more than 250 passing yards but four games of more than 100 rushing yards.
3. Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza: The Cal transfer has been sublime for the undefeated Hoosiers, carving up opponents with his arm and legs. Mendoza leads the country in passing efficiency (rating: 191) and is tied for fourth in yards-per-attempt. He has 21 touchdowns passes and only two interceptions and was impressive in Indiana's 10-point win at Oregon.
Also under consideration: Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson, Miami edge rusher Rueben Bain, Ohio State safety Caleb Downs and Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed.
Coach of the Year candidates
Just as the opening months have generated a slew of in-season coaching terminations -- with more dismissals expected in the coming weeks -- so has this parity-driven season produced a handful of stellar performances.
Our top three:
1. Vanderbilt's Clark Lea: Picked seventh in the SEC preseason media poll, the Commodores are 7-1 and will be ranked in the top 10 when the new AP Top 25 is released Sunday. But they are more than their record. The Commodores are a bully in the SEC -- a reflection of Lea's vision and Pavia's passion.
2. Indiana's Curt Cignetti: The 2024 AP Coach of the Year is a threat to repeat. The Hoosiers are 8-0 with a dominant win over Oregon (in Eugene) and possess a soft finishing schedule, which makes them a frontrunner for the Big Ten title game and a near lock for the CFP.
3. Texas A&M's Mike Elko: The second-year coach leads the only undefeated team remaining in the SEC and owns one of the best results of the season: The pulsating Week 3 victory at Notre Dame. The Aggies are tough on defense and dynamic on offense and, for our money, the best team in Texas.
Also considered: Alabama's Kalen DeBoer, BYU's Kalani Sitake, Cincinnati's Scott Satterfield, Georgia Tech's Brent Key, South Florida's Alex Golesh and Virginia's Tony Elliott.
November showdowns
The final five weeks are littered with matchups that will impact conference races and the playoff chase. We have attempted to pinpoint five that should not be missed (chronologically).
- Nov. 8, BYU at Texas Tech: The Cougars (8-0) have a bye next weekend, meaning they will be undefeated upon arrival in Lubbock. Meanwhile, the one-loss Red Raiders and their quarterback carousel will be in must-win mode in order to qualify for the conference championship game.
- Nov. 15, Notre Dame at Pittsburgh: The Panthers (6-2) are arguably the best of the five teams left on Notre Dame's schedule, meaning they will have support from every playoff hopeful across the power conferences. If the Irish (5-2) lose again, they are out of the CFP, and a spot opens for a second team from the ACC or Big 12 or a fourth team from the SEC or Big Ten.
- Nov. 28, Georgia at Georgia Tech: The drama probably won't match last year's eight-overtime affair, but the stakes will be higher with both conference title and playoff positioning in the balance. Don't be surprised if the Yellow Jackets are 11-0 at kickoff, with the Bulldogs 10-1.
- Nov. 29, Oregon at Washington: One of the top rivalries on the West Coast is hurtling toward a high-stakes affair in Husky Stadium. Washington (6-2) must win out to have any shot at the CFP, while the Ducks (7-1) could be in need of a victory if they take a second loss before the regular season finale.
- Nov. 29, Vanderbilt at Tennessee: The 120th edition of this rivalry could be a playoff elimination game for the loser. At the very least, the Commodores will need a victory to secure their spot in the CFP. And goodness, what a story that would be.
Contact Jon Wilner at [email protected]. On X (Twitter): @wilnerhotline
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