Moderate drought has expanded across southern Louisiana in recent weeks

A cold front will bring rain to Louisiana this weekend, but forecasters say it won't be enough to end the dry spell -- especially in southern parishes.

LAFAYETTE, La. (KPEL News) -- Louisiana needs rain. We're getting some this weekend, but not enough to fix the problem.

A cold front will cross the state starting Saturday morning, bringing the first decent rain we've seen in weeks. But Louisiana State Climatologist Jay Grymes says the amounts -- particularly in southern Louisiana -- won't do much to reverse the drought that's been building.

Rain starts Saturday morning in northern and western Louisiana. The National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center lowered its forecast slightly in the last update.

Northern Louisiana: 0.5 to 1.0 inches

Southern Louisiana (south of I-10/12): 0.3 inches or less

The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center includes a marginal risk for strong storms ahead of the front, though the severe weather threat stays low.

The rain comes as drought conditions spread across more of the state. Moderate drought and abnormal dryness now cover much of southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. Parts of the Mississippi Gulf Coast have slipped into severe drought.

The Climate Prediction Center says fall will likely stay drier than normal. That means things could get worse before they get better.

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The U.S. Drought Monitor comes out every Thursday. It tracks rainfall, soil moisture, river levels, and how stressed vegetation looks. All those indicators show Louisiana drying out.

It's not that we're massively behind on yearly rainfall totals. The problem is we haven't had meaningful rain in weeks. That dries out the soil and stresses plants and crops.

Northern and western Louisiana will see the most rain on Saturday. Those areas need it -- they've dealt with the worst drought conditions.

Lafayette and Acadiana? The forecast looks disappointing. A few tenths of an inch won't change much.

Northern parishes face the biggest agricultural impact. Agricultural droughts drain soil moisture and hurt crop production. Farmers watching this weekend's forecast know it's a small help, not a solution.

Grymes puts it plainly: Any rain helps right now, but these amounts won't reverse the trend -- especially in southern Louisiana.

Drought hits Louisiana's economy and water resources hard. Rivers and reservoirs drop. The risk of wildfires goes up.

The U.S. Drought Monitor helps farmers decide when to water more. It helps cities figure out if they need water restrictions. It guides decisions on burn bans.

This weekend's rain is better than nothing. But southern Louisiana should expect drought conditions to stick around. Long-range forecasts show below-normal rain likely through winter.